QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Business Services
TIC Solutions TIC
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 16% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate, 9% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $3.14−69%
- Market Value
- $9.40price +9%
- Off 52-wk high
- −16%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.94
1 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the low ($6.54, Jul 20) about 19%; today about 38%.
| Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $6.54Jul 20 | $10.27 |
| Implied growth | +19% | +38% |
| P/FCF | 38.9× | 100.8× |
| EV/Sales | 1.5× | 1.7× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, TIC’s free cash flow would need to grow about 38% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much TIC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.1× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.94
- Volatility
- 52% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.48
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.40
How it ranks
Where TIC stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 4 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate69% · price above our base caseLowest 4%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield1% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 21%of 1,391
- Operating margin−2.2% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 10%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital−1% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 8%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $3.14 · MV $9.40
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 45.7% a year FY23–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.10 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026. Net debt $1.3B, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 1 of 5
ValuationPrice / book of 1.1×, below the 3.2× median for the 336 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $3.14, 69% below the price.
ProfitabilityLost $122M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityLoses money at the operating line: −2% operating margin over the last 12 months.
Balance sheetNet debt of $1.3B, 56% of the market cap (Jun 30, 2026).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow; ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 5.5× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
FCF yield 1.0% · ROE -7%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 100.8×
- FCF yield
- 1.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- 17.9×
- Price / sales
- 1.09×
- Price / book
- 1.07×
- Market cap
- $2.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $3.5B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- n/ano year-ago 12-month revenue
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$122M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 33.9%
- Operating margin
- −2.2%
- Net margin
- −5.9%
- FCF margin
- 1.1%
- Return on equity
- −7%
- Return on invested capital
- −1%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $362M
- Total debt
- $1.6B
- Net cash
- −$1.3B
- Debt / equity
- 0.77×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $22M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $38M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From TIC Solutions’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.0B · Sales +86%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin0%
- Gross margin34%
- Operating margin2%
- Return on invested capital1%
- Return on equity−7%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+86%
- Net debt / EBITDA5.5×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $10.27
- Fair value est.base case$3.14−69.4%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$6.54−36.3%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 6$9.40−8.5%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$10.27you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$12.20+18.8%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 67 · 5 days +7.2%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.15
- Year-ago EPS($0.08)
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
TIC is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on TIC Solutions in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Business Services
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.