QualityDipStocks / Technology · IT services
Toast TOST
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 19% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $30.12−5%
- Market Value
- $32.62price −3%
- Off 52-wk high
- −19%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 1.04
5 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $31.68
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$22.33−29.5%
- Fair value est.base case$30.12−4.9%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$31.68you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 4$32.62+3.0%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$39.02+23.2%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, TOST’s free cash flow would need to grow about 16% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much TOST moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 3.6× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.04
- Volatility
- 47% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.29
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.16
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 4.7% in FY2025 from −7.4% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 31% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 23% to $6.8B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 25% over the last 12 months, up 37 points in two years.
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 25.9% in FY2025 from 21.6% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 3 of 5
ValuationP/E of 38.5×, above the 33.9× median for the 138 Technology companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 9.1×, above the 7.1× median for the 149 Technology companies we cover.
RiskReports earnings Nov 3 (consensus EPS $0.26): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Toast in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in IT services
All fundamentals
P/E 38.5 · FCF yield 3.1% · ROE 25%
Valuation
- P/E
- 38.5×Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 32.5×
- FCF yield
- 3.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 2.75×
- Price / book
- 9.14×
- Market cap
- $18.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $6.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +23.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +31.1%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.79
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/an/m: EPS a year ago near zero
- Net income, 12 months
- $486M
- Net income growth
- +117%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 26.7%
- Operating margin
- 6.3%
- Net margin
- 7.1%
- FCF margin
- 8.5%
- Return on equity
- 25%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.0B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $576M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +13%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $562M3.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −2.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $231M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Toast’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $30.12 · MV $32.62 · FCF value $20.45
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 31.1% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.98 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 50 · 5 days −3.1%
The business
FCF $0.5B · Sales +23%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin7%
- Gross margin27%
- Operating margin7%
- Return on equity25%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+23%
- Net debt / EBITDA−3.6×
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.26
- Year-ago EPS$0.16
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
TOST is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.