QualityDipStocks / Finance · Specialty Insurers
TWFG TWFG
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 8% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 6% over its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $27.03price +6%
- Off 52-wk high
- −8%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.55
52-week range 82% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $28.60Market Value $27.03
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 8% below its 52-week high (Aug 25), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts), others slipped. The price is 8% below its 52-week high.
The price is 8% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($31.15, Aug 25) the price assumed about −12%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($17.04, Feb 24) about −16%; today about −13%. The last 3 years delivered 28%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 28%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $31.15Aug 25 | $17.04Feb 24 | $28.60 |
| Implied growth | −12% | −16% | −13% |
| P/E | 46.4× | 38.9× | 42.6× |
| P/FCF | 6.8× | 5.3× | 6.3× |
| EV/Sales | 1.1× | 0.5× | 1.0× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for TWFG: the model gives 392% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, TWFG’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 13% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much TWFG moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 3.6× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.55
- Volatility
- 46% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.15
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.27
Valuation details
MV $27.03
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 179% to $0.53 in FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 35% to $295M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 17% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Balance sheetNet cash of $71M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Jun 30, 2026).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 32% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ValuationP/E of 170.5× vs a 13.3× median for the 364 Finance companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 32.5×, above the 1.6× median for the 368 Finance companies we cover.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 18.3×, above the 15.8× median for the 34 Finance companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 5.8% above its Market Value of $27.03, the average price paid since the Aug 13 filing.
All fundamentals
P/E 170.5 · FCF yield 4.0% · ROE 14%
Valuation
- P/E
- 170.5×Finance median 13.3×
- Price / FCF
- 25.1×
- FCF yield
- 4.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- 18.3×
- Price / sales
- 5.09×
- Price / book
- 32.50×
- Market cap
- $1.5Blisted
- Enterprise value
- $1.4B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $295M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +34.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +17.3%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.60
- EPS growth, last FY
- +178.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $9M
- Net income growth
- +46%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 18.3%
- Net margin
- 3.0%
- FCF margin
- 20.3%
- Return on equity
- 14%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $74M
- Total debt
- $3M
- Net cash
- $71M
- Debt / equity
- 0.07×
- Interest coverage
- 211.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $60M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +32%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $4M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From TWFG’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.0B · Sales +45%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin−11%
- Gross margin86%
- Operating margin20%
- Return on equity19%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+45%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.8×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $28.60
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$17.04−40.4%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 13$27.03−5.5%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$28.60you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$31.15+8.9%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 63 · 5 days −1.5%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.23
- Year-ago EPS$0.18
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
TWFG is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on TWFG in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Specialty Insurers
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.