QualityDipStocks / Finance · Specialty Insurers
Neptune Insurance NP
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 16% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: there isn’t enough data.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $28.91price +2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −16%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.12
3 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 16% below its 52-week high (Jul 29), but the business held up: revenue +8.4%, earnings per share +25.0%, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more.
Some numbers held up (revenue +8.4%, earnings per share +25.0%, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more), others slipped. The price is 16% below its 52-week high.
The price is 16% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 8 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$182M → $197M (+8.4%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+33.0% → +33.8% a year (+0.8 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$0.26 → $0.32 (+25.0%)held up
- Operating margin40.7% → 41.3% (+0.5 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding−4.5% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Finance)stock −16%, sector median −2% since Jul 29about the same
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −16%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +17% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/E 137.1× at the high → 91.7× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Jun 30, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
52-wk high: P/E 137.1×; now: P/E 91.7×.
| High | Now | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $35.11Jul 29 | $29.36 |
| Implied growth | n/a | n/a |
| P/E | 137.1× | 91.7× |
What this means: a lower P/E than at the high means you pay less for each dollar of profit than buyers did then.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
No estimate for NP: Capital spending isn't tagged in SEC XBRL data. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much NP moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 4.8× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.12
- Volatility
- 61% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.02
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.05
Valuation details
MV $28.91
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
GrowthSales compounded 37% a year from FY2023 to FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 34% to $197M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 41% over the last 12 months.
Top bearish points 3 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 44.5% in FY2025 from 53.5% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationP/E of 91.7× vs a 13.6× median for the 291 Finance companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count up 50.5% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
All fundamentals
P/E 91.7 · Sales +34%
Valuation
- P/E
- 91.7×Finance median 13.6×
- Price / FCF
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF yield
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 20.81×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $4.1Blisted
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $197M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +33.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +37.1%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.36
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $45M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 41.3%
- Net margin
- 22.7%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- n/anegative shareholder equity
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $17M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 5.4×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- 0%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +50.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $32M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Neptune Insurance’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
Sales +34%
- Gross margin51%
- Operating margin47%
- Return on invested capital139%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+34%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.2×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $29.36
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$17.14−41.6%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 20$28.91−1.5%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$29.36you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$35.11+19.6%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 53 · 5 days +3.5%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
NP is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Neptune Insurance in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Specialty Insurers
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.