QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Medical Specialities
UnitedHealth Group UNH
Not in a dip by our rules: 7% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $658.72+62%
- Market Value
- $404.64price +1%
- Off 52-wk high
- −7%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.32
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $406.97
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$259.02−36.4%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 13$404.64−0.6%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$406.97you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$436.35+7.2%
- Fair value est.base case$658.72+61.9%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 11.4% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 9.4%; bull = 8.5% and 13.4% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, UNH’s free cash flow would need to grow about 3% a year for five years; our estimate uses 11%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much UNH moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.7× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.32
- Volatility
- 35% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.12
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.04
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $658.72, 62% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 6.4% (price / FCF 15.6×): $23.6B of free cash in the last 12 months.
GrowthSales compounded 11% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityGross margin of 89%, above the 65% median for the 81 Health Care companies we cover.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 4.2% in FY2025 from 8.7% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetDebt rose 25% to $78.4B from FY2023 to FY2025.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 15% to $13.23 in FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 6.5% over the last 12 months, below the 8.6% median for the 101 Health Care companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on UnitedHealth Group in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Medical Specialities
All fundamentals
P/E 26.1 · FCF yield 6.4% · Sales +6%
Valuation
- P/E
- 26.1×3-yr-end avg 26.5× · Health Care median 29.2×
- Price / FCF
- 15.6×
- FCF yield
- 6.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 0.82×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $369Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $450B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +6.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +11.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $15.56
- EPS growth, last FY
- −14.7%
- Net income, 12 months
- $14.1B
- Net income growth
- −34%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 88.6%
- Operating margin
- 4.8%
- Net margin
- 3.1%
- FCF margin
- 5.2%
- Return on equity
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 5.6×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $23.6B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −7%
- Dividend yield
- 2.20%$8.1B paid
- Payout ratio
- 57%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.6B0.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $1.0B
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026. From UnitedHealth Group’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $658.72 · MV $404.64 · FCF value $629.82
Assumes 11.4% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 11.4% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $26.07 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 10, 2026. Net debt $38.0B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 56 · 5 days −2.7%
The business
FCF $22.8B · Sales 0%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$22.8B
- Free-cash-flow yield6.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin5%
- Gross margin20%
- Operating margin5%
- Return on invested capital11%
- Return on equity16%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)0%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.6×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when UNH fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on UNH or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.