QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Specialty distribution
Vipshop VIPS
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 34% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- FCF yield 12%, top 7% of the 1145 we measure
- Share count down 9% in 2 years
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $25.38+90%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −34%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.60
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, VIPS’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 8% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much VIPS moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.5× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.60
- Volatility
- 32% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.24
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.19
How it ranks
Where VIPS stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 3 of 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate90% · price below our base caseTop 10%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield12% · free cash flow vs market capTop 6%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield15% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 2%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−2.3% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 8%of 1,814
- Operating margin7.7% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 36%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $25.38
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -3.1% a year FY23–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.60 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, converted from CNY at 0.1499, 0.2 shares per ADR), from the 20-F filed Apr 16, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $25.38, 90% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 12.0% (price / FCF 8.3×): $820M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 6.3× vs a 20.7× median for the 341 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 3.9% ($269M paid over 12 months, 25% of earnings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 18% over the last 12 months.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew only 0.9% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
GrowthSales fell 2.3% over the last 12 months, below the 6.7% median for the 376 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityGross margin of 23%, below the 37% median for the 254 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 7.7%, below the 11% median for the 341 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no cash-flow data; sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
All fundamentals
P/E 6.3 · FCF yield 12.0% · ROE 18%
Valuation
- P/E
- 6.3×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
- Price / FCF
- 8.3×
- FCF yield
- 12.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 0.43×
- Price / book
- 1.11×
- Market cap
- $6.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $15.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −2.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +0.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $70.74
- EPS growth, last FY
- −1.4%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.1B
- Net income growth
- −6%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 23.1%
- Operating margin
- 7.7%
- Net margin
- 6.8%
- FCF margin
- 5.2%
- Return on equity
- 18%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $4.3B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 90.4×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $820M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −15%
- Dividend yield
- 3.94%$269M paid
- Payout ratio
- 25%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $741M10.9% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $260M
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Vipshop’s SEC filings, reported in CNY and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
Sales −4%
- Gross margin23%
- Operating margin6%
- Return on equity24%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−4%
- Net debt / EBITDA−2.2×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $13.33
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$12.09−9.3%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$13.33you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$20.29+52.2%
- Fair value est.base case$25.38+90.4%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 61 · 5 days +5.5%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 19
- DateThu Nov 19
- Consensus EPS$0.31
- Year-ago EPS$0.33
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
VIPS is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Vipshop in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Specialty distribution
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.