QualityDipStocks / Finance · Major Banks
Valley National Bancorp VLY
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 7% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $12.40−12%
- Market Value
- $14.04price +1%
- Off 52-wk high
- −7%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.68
4 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $14.14
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$10.43−26.2%
- Fair value est.base case$12.40−12.3%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 22$14.04−0.7%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$14.14you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$15.19+7.4%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 8.1% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 6.1%; bull = 8.5% and 10.1%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, VLY would need a return on equity of about 9% a year; our estimate uses 8%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much VLY moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.0× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.68
- Volatility
- 25% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.35
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.20
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 46% to $1.01 in FY2025.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 3.2% ($248M paid over 12 months, 37% of earnings).
GrowthSales grew 12% to $2.2B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationPrice / book of 1.0×, below the 1.8× median for the 143 Finance companies we cover.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ValuationOur residual-income fair value estimate is $12.40, 12% below the price.
GrowthSales grew 2.8% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 9.3% median for the 144 Finance companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 8.6%, below the 13% median for the 143 Finance companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no cash-flow data; ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Valley National Bancorp in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Major Banks
All fundamentals
P/E 11.8 · ROE 9% · Sales +12%
Valuation
- P/E
- 11.8×Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a bank
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a bank
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Price / sales
- 3.63×
- Price / book
- 0.99×
- Market cap
- $7.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.2Bnet interest income + noninterest income
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +12.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +2.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.18
- EPS growth, last FY
- +46.4%
- Net income, 12 months
- $664M
- Net income growth
- +56%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 30.8%
- FCF margin
- 25.9%
- Return on equity
- 9%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $967M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for a bank
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $558M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +55%
- Dividend yield
- 3.17%$248M paid
- Payout ratio
- 37%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $131M1.7% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $30M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Valley National Bancorp’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $12.40 · MV $14.04
Financials model (residual income): book value $14.51 a share on Jun 30, 2026, plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 8.1%, the average of 8.5% for the trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026 and 7.7% over fiscal 2021–2025, on average common equity; payout 52% of earnings (dividends 37% + net buybacks 15%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 66 · 5 days +0.6%
The business
Sales +10%
- Return on equity9%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+10%
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
VLY is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.