QualityDipStocks / Finance · Real Estate
Corporacion Inmobiliaria Vesta S.A.B de C.V. VTMX
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 3% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $73.95+104%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −3%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.59
5 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 3% below its 52-week high (Oct 26), but the business held up: shares outstanding unchanged, free cash flow 0.0%.
Some numbers held up (shares outstanding unchanged, free cash flow 0.0%), others slipped. The price is 3% below its 52-week high.
The price is 3% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($37.49, Oct 26) the price assumed about 3%/yr free-cash-flow growth; today about 2%. The last 3 years delivered 47%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 47%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Now | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $37.49Oct 26 | $36.32 |
| Implied growth | +3% | +2% |
| P/E | 13.3× | 12.9× |
| P/FCF | 15.6× | 15.2× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, VTMX’s free cash flow would need to grow about 2% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much VTMX moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 1.8× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.59
- Volatility
- 24% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.32
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.25
How it ranks
Where VTMX stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 3 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate104% · price below our base caseTop 8%of 1,314
- Dividends + buybacks yield3.3% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 42%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+12% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 41%of 1,814
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $73.95 · FCF value $45.40
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 16.7% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.40 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, 10 shares per ADR), from the 20-F filed Mar 17, 2026. Net debt $954M, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $73.95, 104% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 60% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 6.6% (price / FCF 15.2×): $206M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.2% ($68M paid over 12 months, 28% of earnings).
ValuationPrice / book of 1.1×, below the 1.7× median for the 296 Finance companies we cover.
Top bearish points 3 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 9.1%, below the 12% median for the 291 Finance companies we cover.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 11% in the last fiscal year, below the 16% median for the 262 Finance companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 3.6× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
P/E 12.9 · FCF yield 6.6% · ROE 9%
Valuation
- P/E
- 12.9×Finance median 13.6×
- Price / FCF
- 15.2×
- FCF yield
- 6.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Price / book
- 1.14×
- Market cap
- $3.1Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- n/athe SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Sales growth, 12 months
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.28
- EPS growth, last FY
- +11.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- $242M
- Net income growth
- +8%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- FCF margin
- 72.9%
- Return on equity
- 9%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $337M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $206M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +60%
- Dividend yield
- 2.18%$68M paid
- Payout ratio
- 28%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $36M1.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Corporacion Inmobiliaria Vesta S.A.B de C.V.’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales +10%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield6.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin50%
- Gross margin89%
- Operating margin76%
- Return on invested capital4%
- Return on equity17%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+10%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.5×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $36.32
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$29.74−18.1%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$36.32you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$37.49+3.2%
- Fair value est.base case$73.95+103.6%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 60 · 5 days −3.1%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
VTMX is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Corporacion Inmobiliaria Vesta S.A.B de C.V. in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Real Estate
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.