QualityDipStocks / Technology · IT services
Waystar WAY
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 25% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate, 11% over its Market Value.
Worth knowing
- Down 26% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 21%
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $41.58+48%
- Market Value
- $25.39price +11%
- Off 52-wk high
- −25%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.46
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 25% below its 52-week high (Nov 4), but the business held up: revenue +21.4%, revenue growth rate +6.7 pts, earnings per share +12.5%.
Some numbers held up (revenue +21.4%, revenue growth rate +6.7 pts, earnings per share +12.5%), others slipped (shares outstanding more shares, each owns less, net cash (cash minus debt) −6.9% of market cap since the high). The price is 25% below its 52-week high.
The price is 25% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: shares outstanding more shares, each owns less, net cash (cash minus debt) −6.9% of market cap since the high.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 10 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$1.0B → $1.3B (+21.4%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+14.8% → +21.4% a year (+6.7 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$0.61 → $0.69 (+12.5%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$285M → $264M (−7.2%)about the same
- Operating margin23.4% → 21.9% (−1.5 pts)about the same
- Shares outstanding+8.1% (more shares, each owns less)changed
- Net cash (cash minus debt)−6.9% of market cap since the highchanged
- Stock vs its sector (Technology)stock −25%, sector median +10% since Nov 4changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −25%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +12% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 23.9× at the high → 20.9× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($37.49, Nov 4) the price assumed about 10%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($17.31, Jun 22) about −3%; today about 8%. The last 3 years delivered 49%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 49%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $37.49Nov 4 | $17.31Jun 22 | $28.14 |
| Implied growth | +10% | −3% | +8% |
| P/E | 61.1× | 26.8× | 40.8× |
| P/FCF | 23.9× | 11.5× | 20.9× |
| EV/Sales | 7.3× | 4.1× | 5.3× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, WAY’s free cash flow would need to grow about 8% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much WAY moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 4.2× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.46
- Volatility
- 54% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.11
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.01
How it ranks
Where WAY stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 3 of 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate48% · price below our base caseTop 22%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield4.8% · free cash flow vs market capTop 42%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0.6% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 26%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+21% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 24%of 1,814
- Operating margin22% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 24%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital3.7% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 17%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $41.58 · MV $25.39 · FCF value $33.87
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 16.0% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.35 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Nov 2, 2026. Net debt $1.2B, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $41.58, 48% above the price.
GrowthSales grew 21% to $1.3B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 16% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 22.7% in FY2025 from 18.0% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetPaid down debt: $1.5B at FY2025, 33% less than at FY2023.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsShare count up 8.1% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 4%, below the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity is only 4% over the last 12 months.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
ValuationTrades 10.8% above its Market Value of $25.39, the average price paid since the Jul 29 filing.
All fundamentals
P/E 40.8 · FCF yield 4.8% · ROE 4%
Valuation
- P/E
- 40.8×Technology median 33.0×
- Price / FCF
- 20.9×
- FCF yield
- 4.8%
- EV / EBITDA
- 15.2×
- Price / sales
- 4.37×
- Price / book
- 1.37×
- Market cap
- $5.5Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $6.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +21.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +16.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.69
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $135M
- Net income growth
- +22%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 21.9%
- Net margin
- 10.7%
- FCF margin
- 20.9%
- Return on equity
- 4%
- Return on invested capital
- 4%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $277M
- Total debt
- $1.5B
- Net cash
- −$1.2B
- Debt / equity
- 0.36×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $264M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −7%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $33M0.6% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +8.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $62M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Waystar’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales +18%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.8%
- Gross margin69%
- Operating margin24%
- Return on invested capital4%
- Return on equity4%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+18%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.0×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $28.14
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$17.31−38.5%
- Market Valueavg paid since Jul 29$25.39−9.8%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$28.14you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$37.49+33.2%
- Fair value est.base case$41.58+47.8%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 56 · 5 days −1.9%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
WAY is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Waystar in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in IT services
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.