QualityDipStocks / Real Estate · REITs
Welltower WELL
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 7% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $85.00−64%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −7%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.10
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $234.60
- Fair value est.base case$85.00−63.8%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$180.88−22.9%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$234.60you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$252.07+7.4%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, WELL’s free cash flow would need to grow about 35% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much WELL moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.8× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.10
- Volatility
- 23% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.05
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.17
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
GrowthSales grew 39% to $13.8B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 23% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 0.4×, below the 0.9× median for the 26 Real Estate companies we cover.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 20% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $85.00, 64% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 106.3× vs a 28.7× median for the 46 Real Estate companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count up 10.1% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
Cash returnsPays out more in dividends than it earns: $2.2B paid vs $1.7B of net income.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 5.9× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Welltower in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in REITs
All fundamentals
P/E 106.3 · FCF yield 1.2% · ROE 4%
Valuation
- P/E
- 106.3×Real Estate median 28.7×
- Price / FCF
- 85.1×
- FCF yield
- 1.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 12.84×
- Price / book
- 3.65×
- Market cap
- $177Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $193B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $13.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +39.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +22.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.29
- EPS growth, last FY
- −11.5%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.7B
- Net income growth
- +74%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 39.2%
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 12.1%
- FCF margin
- 15.1%
- Return on equity
- 4%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $2.3B
- Total debt
- $18.2B
- Net cash
- −$15.9B
- Debt / equity
- 0.37×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $2.1B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +20%
- Dividend yield
- 1.23%$2.2B paid
- Payout ratio
- 130%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +10.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $1.6B
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Welltower’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $85.00 · FCF value $112.78
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 22.7% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.76 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 27, 2026. Net debt $15.9B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 53 · 5 days −1.1%
The business
FCF $3.3B · Sales +47%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$3.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin24%
- Gross margin39%
- Operating margin6%
- Return on invested capital1%
- Return on equity4%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+47%
- Net debt / EBITDA5.9×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
WELL is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.