QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Business Services
Western Union Company WU
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 39% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 5% under its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
Worth knowing
- Lowest price in 5 years of weekly closes
- Share count down 12% in 2 years
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $6.62price −5%
- Off 52-wk high
- −39%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.38
52-week range 9% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $6.29Market Value $6.62
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Mixed signals
The price is 39% below its 52-week high (Feb 6), but the business held up: free cash flow +11.0%, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, revenue growth rate +0.8 pts.
Some numbers held up (free cash flow +11.0%, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, revenue growth rate +0.8 pts), others slipped (earnings per share −47.2%, operating margin −2.4 pts, revenue −1.6%). The price is 39% below its 52-week high.
The price is 39% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: earnings per share −47.2%, operating margin −2.4 pts, revenue −1.6%.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$4.1B → $4.0B (−1.6%)changed
- Revenue growth rate−2.5% → −1.6% a year (+0.8 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$2.39 → $1.26 (−47.2%)changed
- Free cash flow, 12 months$509M → $565M (+11.0%)held up
- Operating margin18.3% → 15.9% (−2.4 pts)changed
- Shares outstanding−2.9% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Discretionary)stock −39%, sector median +3% since Feb 6changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −39%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −2% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 6.5× at the high → 3.5× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($10.28, Feb 6) the price assumed about −13%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($5.90, Sep 30) about −25%; today about −24%. The last 3 years delivered −3%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −3%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $10.28Feb 6 | $5.90Sep 30 | $6.29 |
| Implied growth | −13% | −25% | −24% |
| P/E | 4.3× | 4.7× | 5.0× |
| P/FCF | 6.5× | 3.3× | 3.5× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for WU: the model gives 354% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, WU’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 24% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much WU moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.9× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.38
- Volatility
- 37% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.13
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.04
How it ranks
Where WU stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 4 measures
- Free cash flow yield29% · free cash flow vs market capTop 1%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield23% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 1%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−1.6% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 10%of 2,184
- Operating margin16% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 34%of 1,549
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $6.62 · FCF value $28.30
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 28.7% (price / FCF 3.5×): $565M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 5.0× vs a 20.1× median for the 411 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 15.3% ($303M paid over 12 months, 77% of earnings).
Cash returnsShare count down 4.9% in a year: $142M of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationTrades 5.0% below its Market Value of $6.62, the average price paid since the Jul 30 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 45% to $1.52 in FY2025.
Balance sheetDebt rose 34% to $2.9B from FY2023 to FY2025.
GrowthSales shrank 3% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS $0.35): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 5.0 · FCF yield 28.7% · Sales −2%
Valuation
- P/E
- 5.0×Consumer Discretionary median 20.1×
- Price / FCF
- 3.5×
- FCF yield
- 28.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 0.49×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $2.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $4.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −1.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −3.3%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.24
- EPS growth, last FY
- −44.5%
- Net income, 12 months
- $395M
- Net income growth
- −56%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 35.1%
- Operating margin
- 15.9%
- Net margin
- 9.8%
- FCF margin
- 14.0%
- Return on equity
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 4.3×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $565M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +22%
- Dividend yield
- 15.35%$303M paid
- Payout ratio
- 77%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $142M7.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −4.9%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $41M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026. From Western Union Company’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.4B · Sales −1%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.4B
- Free-cash-flow yield28.7%
- Free-cash-flow margin9%
- Gross margin35%
- Operating margin13%
- Return on invested capital15%
- Return on equity44%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−1%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.1×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $6.29
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$5.90−6.2%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$6.29you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Jul 30$6.62+5.2%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$10.28+63.4%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 51 · 5 days +1.3%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.35
- Year-ago EPS$0.47
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
WU is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Western Union Company in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Business Services
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.