QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Industrial Specialties
XPEL XPEL
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 18% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 4% under its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: its free cash flow is negative.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $46.74price −4%
- Off 52-wk high
- −18%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.86
52-week range 52% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $44.85Market Value $46.74
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 18% below its 52-week high (Jan 21), but the business held up: revenue +10.1%, revenue growth rate +2.9 pts, earnings per share +21.3%.
Some numbers held up (revenue +10.1%, revenue growth rate +2.9 pts, earnings per share +21.3%), others slipped (free cash flow $66M → −$3M, turned negative). The price is 18% below its 52-week high.
The price is 18% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: free cash flow $66M → −$3M, turned negative.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$461M → $508M (+10.1%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+10.3% → +13.2% a year (+2.9 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$1.69 → $2.05 (+21.3%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$66M → −$3M, turned negativechanged
- Operating margin12.9% → 13.5% (+0.6 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding−3.4% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Industrials)stock −18%, sector median −1% since Jan 21about the same
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −18%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +16% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/E 32.6× at the high → 21.9× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($54.95, Jan 21) the price assumed about 10%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($34.10, Oct 31) about 5%. The last 3 years delivered 148%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 148%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $54.95Jan 21 | $34.10Oct 31 | $44.85 |
| Implied growth | +10% | +5% | n/a |
| P/E | 32.6× | 19.4× | 21.9× |
| P/FCF | 23.1× | 18.1× | — |
| EV/Sales | — | — | 2.4× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
No estimate for XPEL: negative free cash flow. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much XPEL moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, and its own price swings are 3.2× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.86
- Volatility
- 40% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.27
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.19
How it ranks
Where XPEL stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 5 measures
- Free cash flow yield−0.2% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 19%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield0.5% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 28%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+13% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 38%of 2,184
- Operating margin13% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 41%of 1,549
- Return on invested capital18% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 24%of 1,001
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $46.74
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 18%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
GrowthSales grew 13% to $508M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 19% over the last 12 months.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest 257× over.
ValuationTrades 4.0% below its Market Value of $46.74, the average price paid since the Aug 5 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree cash flow is negative (−$3M over the last 12 months), so there’s no cash-flow value under the price.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 13.2% in FY2025 from 16.9% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 11 points in two fiscal years, to 18% in FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow.
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS $0.55): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 21.9 · FCF yield -0.2% · ROE 19%
Valuation
- P/E
- 21.9×Industrials median 26.3×
- Price / FCF
- n/anegative free cash flow
- FCF yield
- −0.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- 14.5×
- Price / sales
- 2.36×
- Price / book
- 3.92×
- Market cap
- $1.2Blisted
- Enterprise value
- $1.2B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $508M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +13.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +13.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.98
- EPS growth, last FY
- +12.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- $55M
- Net income growth
- +12%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 42.9%
- Operating margin
- 13.5%
- Net margin
- 10.8%
- FCF margin
- −0.6%
- Return on equity
- 19%
- Return on invested capital
- 18%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $41M
- Total debt
- $45M
- Net cash
- −$4M
- Debt / equity
- 0.15×
- Interest coverage
- 257.4×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- −$3M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $6M0.5% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $3M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From XPEL’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.0B · Sales +15%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield-0.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin−3%
- Gross margin43%
- Operating margin16%
- Return on invested capital20%
- Return on equity19%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+15%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.3×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $44.85
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$34.10−24.0%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$44.85you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$46.74+4.2%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$54.95+22.5%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 51 · 5 days +5.8%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.55
- Year-ago EPS$0.47
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
XPEL is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on XPEL in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Industrial Specialties
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.