QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Auto Manufacturing
XPeng American depositary shares XPEV
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 66% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Down 66% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 88%
- Lowest close since Sep 2024
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $24.79+159%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −66%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.39
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, XPEV’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 2% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much XPEV moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.2× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.39
- Volatility
- 54% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.33
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.31
How it ranks
Where XPEV stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 3 of 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate159% · price below our base caseTop 2%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield8.4% · free cash flow vs market capTop 16%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+88% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 3%of 1,814
- Operating margin−3.6% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 9%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital−9.7% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 2%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $24.79
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 41.9% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.80 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, converted from CNY at 0.1499, 2 shares per ADR), from the 20-F filed Apr 16, 2026. Net cash $1.2B, not added.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 88% to $11.5B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 18.9% in FY2025 from 1.5% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to −3.6% in FY2025 from −35.5% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 42% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $24.79, 159% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only -7.3× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityLost $171M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityLoses money at the operating line: −4% operating margin over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of −9.7%, below the 10% median for the 175 Industrials companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no cash-flow data; ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
All fundamentals
FCF yield 8.4% · ROE -4% · Sales +88%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 11.9×
- FCF yield
- 8.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anegative EBITDA
- Price / sales
- 0.79×
- Price / book
- 2.00×
- Market cap
- $9.1Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $7.9B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $11.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +87.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +41.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$0.60
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$171M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 18.9%
- Operating margin
- −3.6%
- Net margin
- −1.5%
- FCF margin
- 6.7%
- Return on equity
- −4%
- Return on invested capital
- −10%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $3.1B
- Total debt
- $1.9B
- Net cash
- $1.2B
- Debt / equity
- 0.42×
- Interest coverage
- -7.3×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $765M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $85M
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From XPeng American depositary shares’s SEC filings, reported in CNY and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
Sales +8%
- Gross margin21%
- Operating margin−6%
- Return on equity−11%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+8%
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $9.57
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$9.04−5.5%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$9.57you are here
- Fair value est.base case$24.79+159.1%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$28.07+193.3%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 49 · 5 days +4.9%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 16
- DateMon Nov 16, before the open
- Year-ago EPS($0.06)
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
XPEV is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on XPeng American depositary shares in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Auto Manufacturing
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.