QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Restaurants
Yum! Brands YUM
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 8% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate, 6% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $115.55−26%
- Market Value
- $146.25price +6%
- Off 52-wk high
- −8%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.02
3 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $155.40
- Fair value est.base case$115.55−25.6%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$135.75−12.6%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 7$146.25−5.9%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$155.40you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$168.16+8.2%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 6.3% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 4.3%; bull = 8.5% and 8.3% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, YUM’s free cash flow would need to grow about 12% a year for five years; our estimate uses 6%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much YUM moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.9× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.02
- Volatility
- 25% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.01
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.13
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 60%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 31% over the last 12 months.
GrowthSales grew 10% to $8.7B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $115.55, 26% below the price.
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 69.8% in FY2025 from 74.9% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 18.6×, above the 12.8× median for the 113 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 3.9× EBITDA (limit 3×).
ValuationTrades 6.3% above its Market Value of $146.25, the average price paid since the Aug 7 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Yum! Brands in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Restaurants
All fundamentals
P/E 19.4 · FCF yield 3.9% · Sales +10%
Valuation
- P/E
- 19.4×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 25.6×
- FCF yield
- 3.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- 18.6×
- Price / sales
- 4.94×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $43.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $54.6B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $8.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +10.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +6.3%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $7.94
- EPS growth, last FY
- +6.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.2B
- Net income growth
- +55%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 68.1%
- Operating margin
- 31.0%
- Net margin
- 25.4%
- FCF margin
- 19.3%
- Return on equity
- n/anegative shareholder equity
- Return on invested capital
- 60%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $674M
- Total debt
- $12.3B
- Net cash
- −$11.6B
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.7B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +9%
- Dividend yield
- 1.87%$807M paid
- Payout ratio
- 36%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $888M2.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $68M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Yum! Brands’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $115.55 · MV $146.25 · FCF value $154.66
Assumes 6.3% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 6.3% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $6.06 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026. Net debt $5.0B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 67 · 5 days +3.8%
The business
FCF $1.7B · Sales +12%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.7B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin19%
- Gross margin45%
- Operating margin30%
- Return on invested capital40%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+12%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.9×
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3, before the open
- Consensus EPS$1.47
- Year-ago EPS$1.58
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
YUM is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.