QualityDipStocks / Real Estate · REITs
American Assets Trust AAT
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 15% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Dividend yield 6.3%, top 5% of the 2092 we measure
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $15.49−29%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −15%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.33
52-week range 51% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $21.89Fair value est. $15.49
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 15% below its 52-week high (Jul 16), but the business held up: revenue growth rate +5.0 pts, earnings per share +16.1%, operating margin +0.8 pts.
Some numbers held up (revenue growth rate +5.0 pts, earnings per share +16.1%, operating margin +0.8 pts), others slipped (free cash flow −18.8%). The price is 15% below its 52-week high.
The price is 15% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: free cash flow −18.8%.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$438M → $444M (+1.4%)about the same
- Revenue growth rate−3.9% → +1.1% a year (+5.0 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$0.24 → $0.28 (+16.1%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$93M → $75M (−18.8%)changed
- Operating margin22.8% → 23.6% (+0.8 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding0.0% (more shares, each owns less)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Real Estate)stock −15%, sector median −8% since Jul 16held up
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −15%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +1% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 21.5× at the high → 22.4× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Mar 31, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($25.85, Jul 16) the price assumed about 8%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($17.76, Jan 28) about 2%; today about 9%. The last 3 years delivered 13%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 13%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $25.85Jul 16 | $17.76Jan 28 | $21.89 |
| Implied growth | +8% | +2% | +9% |
| P/E | 108.9× | 22.2× | 79.5× |
| P/FCF | 21.5× | 14.6× | 22.4× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, AAT’s free cash flow would need to grow about 9% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much AAT moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 1.7× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.33
- Volatility
- 22% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.19
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.06
How it ranks
Where AAT stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 3 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate29% · price above our base caseLowest 26%of 1,507
- Dividends + buybacks yield6.3% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 18%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+1.1% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 18%of 2,184
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $15.49 · FCF value $25.26
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 1.1% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.98 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 30, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
Cash returnsDividend yield of 6.3% ($106M paid over 12 months).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 33.5% in FY2025 from 27.6% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin of 61%, above the 55% median for the 33 Real Estate companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 1.5×, below the 1.8× median for the 105 Real Estate companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $15.49, 29% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 79.5× vs a 25.2× median for the 90 Real Estate companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity is only 2% over the last 12 months.
GrowthSales grew only 1.1% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 6.9× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
P/E 79.5 · FCF yield 4.5% · ROE 2%
Valuation
- P/E
- 79.5×Real Estate median 25.2×
- Price / FCF
- 22.4×
- FCF yield
- 4.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.79×
- Price / book
- 1.52×
- Market cap
- $1.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $444M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +1.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +1.1%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.35
- EPS growth, last FY
- −2.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- $21M
- Net income growth
- −66%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 61.1%
- Operating margin
- 23.6%
- Net margin
- 4.8%
- FCF margin
- 16.9%
- Return on equity
- 2%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $90M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $75M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −19%
- Dividend yield
- 6.27%$106M paid
- Payout ratio
- n/an/m
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $7M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From American Assets Trust’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +4%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin14%
- Gross margin62%
- Operating margin26%
- Return on invested capital3%
- Return on equity3%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+4%
- Net debt / EBITDA6.9×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $21.89
- Fair value est.base case$15.49−29.3%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$17.76−18.9%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$21.89you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$25.85+18.1%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 55 · 5 days +2.2%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
AAT is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on American Assets Trust in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in REITs
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.