QualityDipStocks / Consumer Staples · Beverages
Keurig Dr Pepper KDP
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s at its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate, 11% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $26.65−26%
- Market Value
- $32.27price +11%
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.00
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $35.84
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$25.31−29.4%
- Fair value est.base case$26.65−25.6%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 6$32.27−10.0%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$35.84you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$35.84at the price
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 5.7% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 3.7%; bull = 8.5% and 7.7% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, KDP’s free cash flow would need to grow about 11% a year for five years; our estimate uses 6%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much KDP moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.0× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.00
- Volatility
- 26% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.00
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.11
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 46% to $1.53 in FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 27% to $20.1B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 23% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.6% ($1.2B paid over 12 months, 93% of earnings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $26.65, 26% below the price.
Balance sheetNet debt of $23.3B, 48% of the market cap (Jun 30, 2026).
Balance sheetDebt rose 26% to $13.9B from FY2023 to FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 6.6× EBITDA (limit 3×).
ValuationTrades 11.0% above its Market Value of $32.27, the average price paid since the Aug 6 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Keurig Dr Pepper in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Beverages
All fundamentals
P/E 36.4 · FCF yield 4.0% · ROE 5%
Valuation
- P/E
- 36.4×Consumer Staples median 21.7×
- Price / FCF
- 24.8×
- FCF yield
- 4.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- 17.8×
- Price / sales
- 2.43×
- Price / book
- 1.95×
- Market cap
- $48.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $72.2B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $20.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +27.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +5.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.99
- EPS growth, last FY
- +45.7%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.3B
- Net income growth
- −12%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 49.4%
- Operating margin
- 16.2%
- Net margin
- 6.7%
- FCF margin
- 9.8%
- Return on equity
- 5%
- Return on invested capital
- 5%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.5B
- Total debt
- $24.8B
- Net cash
- −$23.3B
- Debt / equity
- 0.99×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $2.0B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +23%
- Dividend yield
- 2.55%$1.2B paid
- Payout ratio
- 93%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $0
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $114M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Keurig Dr Pepper’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $26.65 · MV $32.27 · FCF value $36.77
Assumes 5.7% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 5.7% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.44 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 10, 2026. Net debt $23.3B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 71 · 5 days +3.3%
The business
FCF $2.0B · Sales +76%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$2.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.1%
- Free-cash-flow margin10%
- Gross margin49%
- Operating margin17%
- Return on invested capital5%
- Return on equity6%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+76%
- Net debt / EBITDA6.7×
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.63
- Year-ago EPS$0.54
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
KDP is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.