QualityDipStocks / Technology · Semiconductors
Analog Devices ADI
Not in a dip by our rules: 6% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate, 4% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $160.05−62%
- Market Value
- $401.99price +4%
- Off 52-wk high
- −6%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.72
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $417.11
- Fair value est.base case$160.05−61.6%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$225.20−46.0%
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 17$401.99−3.6%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$417.11you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$445.48+6.8%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ADI’s free cash flow would need to grow about 20% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ADI moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 2.9× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.72
- Volatility
- 37% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.60
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.66
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 34% to $13.9B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 39% to $4.56 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 36% over the last 12 months.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 34% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $160.05, 62% below the price.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 26.6% in FY2025 from 31.1% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales shrank 3% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ValuationP/E of 49.3× vs a 33.9× median for the 138 Technology companies we cover.
RiskSwings hard: beta 1.72 vs the S&P 500 and 37% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Analog Devices in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Semiconductors
All fundamentals
P/E 49.3 · FCF yield 2.4% · ROE 12%
Valuation
- P/E
- 49.3×3-yr-end avg 48.2× · Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 41.3×
- FCF yield
- 2.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- 30.5×
- Price / sales
- 14.69×
- Price / book
- 6.08×
- Market cap
- $204Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $211B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $13.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +33.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −2.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $8.42
- EPS growth, last FY
- +39.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $4.1B
- Net income growth
- +111%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 65.8%
- Operating margin
- 35.5%
- Net margin
- 29.8%
- FCF margin
- 35.6%
- Return on equity
- 12%
- Return on invested capital
- 11%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $2.3B
- Total debt
- $9.1B
- Net cash
- −$6.8B
- Debt / equity
- 0.27×
- Interest coverage
- 14.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $4.9B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +34%
- Dividend yield
- 1.00%$2.0B paid
- Payout ratio
- 49%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $3.1B1.5% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $350M
Trailing 12 months to Aug 1, 2026; balance sheet at Aug 1, 2026. From Analog Devices’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $160.05 · MV $401.99 · FCF value $245.30
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -2.8% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $10.10 a share (trailing 12 months to Aug 1, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 19, 2026. Net debt $6.8B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 56 · 5 days +6.7%
The business
FCF $4.9B · Sales +40%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$4.9B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin36%
- Gross margin66%
- Operating margin36%
- Return on invested capital9%
- Return on equity12%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+40%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.0×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when ADI fires a reversal signal
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