QualityDipStocks / Technology · Semiconductors
Marvell Technology MRVL
Dip watch with a setup armed: a close above $207.61 triggers it. 38% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate, 11% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $47.71−76%
- Market Value
- $219.96price −11%
- Off 52-wk high
- −38%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 3.29
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $196.40
- Fair value est.base case$47.71−75.7%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$73.73−62.5%
- Stopreference, not an order$190.15−3.2%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$196.40you are here
- Triggerclose above fires the setup$207.61+5.7%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 23$219.96+12.0%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$316.43+61.1%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 11.4% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 9.4%; bull = 8.5% and 13.4% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MRVL’s free cash flow would need to grow about 39% a year for five years; our estimate uses 11%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MRVL moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 6.4× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 3.29
- Volatility
- 82% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.51
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.65
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 16.1% in FY2026 from −10.3% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 51.0% in FY2026 from 41.6% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales grew 31% to $9.5B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationTrades 10.7% below its Market Value of $219.96, the average price paid since the Oct 23 filing.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 38% off its 52-week high (dip watch).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $47.71, 76% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 68.5× vs a 33.9× median for the 138 Technology companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count up 5.8% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield is just 1.0% (price / FCF 105×), so the price leans on future growth.
RiskSwings hard: beta 3.29 vs the S&P 500 and 82% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Marvell Technology in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Semiconductors
All fundamentals
P/E 68.5 · FCF yield 1.0% · ROE 17%
Valuation
- P/E
- 68.5×Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 104.6×
- FCF yield
- 1.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 19.14×
- Price / book
- 9.76×
- Market cap
- $181Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $182B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $9.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +30.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +11.4%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $3.02
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.6B
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 52.2%
- Operating margin
- 16.5%
- Net margin
- 27.9%
- FCF margin
- 18.3%
- Return on equity
- 17%
- Return on invested capital
- 6%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $3.9B
- Total debt
- $5.0B
- Net cash
- −$1.0B
- Debt / equity
- 0.27×
- Interest coverage
- 7.2×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.7B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +13%
- Dividend yield
- 0.12%$209M paid
- Payout ratio
- 8%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.9B1.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +5.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $829M
Trailing 12 months to Aug 1, 2026; balance sheet at Aug 1, 2026. From Marvell Technology’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $47.71 · MV $219.96 · FCF value $44.10
Assumes 11.4% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 11.4% a year FY23–FY26), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.88 a share (trailing 12 months to Aug 1, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 28, 2026. Net debt $1.0B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
Armed · trigger $207.61
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 34 · 5 days −14.1%
The business
FCF $1.7B · Sales +36%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.7B
- Free-cash-flow yield0.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin18%
- Gross margin52%
- Operating margin17%
- Return on invested capital5%
- Return on equity17%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+36%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.3×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when MRVL fires a reversal signal
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