QualityDipStocks / Technology · Semiconductors
Arm Holdings ARM
Deep dip with a setup armed: a close above $209.00 triggers it. 53% below its 52-week high.
A quality company. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −53%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 3.57
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $205.97
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$104.55−49.2%
- Stopreference, not an order$198.77−3.5%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$205.97you are here
- Triggerclose above fires the setup$209.00+1.5%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$439.46+113.4%
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for ARM: the model gives 86% below the price; trailing free cash flow is small next to the company's value, so a DCF on it says little. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ARM’s free cash flow would need to grow about 55% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ARM moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 6.3× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 3.57
- Volatility
- 80% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.57
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.66
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 18.3% in FY2026 from 3.4% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 450% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthSales compounded 22% a year from FY2023 to FY2026.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 53% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
SetupA capitulation-reversal setup is armed: a close above $209.00 triggers it, with a reference stop at $198.77.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 243.3× vs a 33.9× median for the 138 Technology companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield is just 0.4% (price / FCF 225×), so the price leans on future growth.
ValuationPrice / book of 26.5×, above the 7.1× median for the 149 Technology companies we cover.
RiskSwings hard: beta 3.57 vs the S&P 500 and 80% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS $0.22): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Arm Holdings in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Semiconductors
All fundamentals
P/E 243.3 · FCF yield 0.4% · ROE 12%
Valuation
- P/E
- 243.3×Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 224.7×
- FCF yield
- 0.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 44.71×
- Price / book
- 26.55×
- Market cap
- $220Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $4.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +22.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +22.5%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.85
- EPS growth, last FY
- +13.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $904M
- Net income growth
- +14%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 97.5%
- Operating margin
- 18.3%
- Net margin
- 18.4%
- FCF margin
- 19.9%
- Return on equity
- 12%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $3.6B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $979M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +450%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $1.1B
Trailing 12 months to Mar 31, 2026; balance sheet at Mar 31, 2026. From Arm Holdings’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
FCF value $31.10
Setup & signals
Armed · trigger $209.00
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 35 · 5 days −2.1%
The business
FCF $1.5B · Sales +22%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield0.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin28%
- Gross margin98%
- Operating margin17%
- Return on invested capital8%
- Return on equity13%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+22%
- Net debt / EBITDA−2.2×
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.22
- Year-ago EPS$0.15
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when ARM fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on ARM or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.