QualityDipStocks / Technology · Semiconductors
Texas Instruments TXN
Not in a dip by our rules: 9% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $125.91−58%
- Market Value
- $297.08price +1%
- Off 52-wk high
- −9%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.49
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $300.84
- Fair value est.base case$125.91−58.1%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$153.33−49.0%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 21$297.08−1.2%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$300.84you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$332.28+10.5%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, TXN’s free cash flow would need to grow about 19% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much TXN moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.3× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.49
- Volatility
- 42% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.45
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.51
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 252% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 39% over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 41% over the last 12 months.
GrowthSales grew 20% to $20.8B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $125.91, 58% below the price.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 34.1% in FY2025 from 41.8% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 57.0% in FY2025 from 62.9% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationP/E of 39.2× is 28% above its own average of 30.7× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
Balance sheetDebt rose 25% to $14.0B from FY2023 to FY2025.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Texas Instruments in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Semiconductors
All fundamentals
P/E 39.2 · FCF yield 2.6% · ROE 39%
Valuation
- P/E
- 39.2×3-yr-end avg 30.7× · Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 37.9×
- FCF yield
- 2.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- 26.5×
- Price / sales
- 13.34×
- Price / book
- 14.44×
- Market cap
- $277Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $282B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $20.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +20.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −4.1%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $7.71
- EPS growth, last FY
- +4.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $7.1B
- Net income growth
- +41%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 60.2%
- Operating margin
- 40.8%
- Net margin
- 34.1%
- FCF margin
- 35.2%
- Return on equity
- 39%
- Return on invested capital
- 30%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $8.1B
- Total debt
- $13.6B
- Net cash
- −$5.4B
- Debt / equity
- 0.71×
- Interest coverage
- 15.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $7.3B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +252%
- Dividend yield
- 1.87%$5.2B paid
- Payout ratio
- 73%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $636M0.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $412M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Texas Instruments’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $125.91 · MV $297.08 · FCF value $192.50
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -4.1% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $7.95 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 23, 2026. Net debt $5.4B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 60 · 5 days +5.7%
The business
FCF $7.3B · Sales +28%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$7.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin35%
- Gross margin60%
- Operating margin41%
- Return on invested capital21%
- Return on equity41%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+28%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.8×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when TXN fires a reversal signal
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