QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Diversified Commercial Services
ADT ADT
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s at its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.62
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 0% below its 52-week high (Oct 29), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, operating margin 0.0 pts, free cash flow 0.0%.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, operating margin 0.0 pts, free cash flow 0.0%), others slipped. The price is 0% below its 52-week high.
The price is 0% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for ADT: the model gives 375% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ADT’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 22% a year for five years; our estimate uses 5%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ADT moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.5× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.62
- Volatility
- 45% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.18
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.02
How it ranks
Where ADT stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 3 of 5 measures
- Free cash flow yield26% · free cash flow vs market capTop 1%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield12% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 4%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+2.1% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 19%of 1,814
- Operating margin25% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 18%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital8.2% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 40%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
FCF value $40.96
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 26.2% (price / FCF 3.8×): $2.0B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 12.3× vs a 20.7× median for the 341 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 5.7×: modest for what the business earns before interest, tax and depreciation.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 17% over the last 12 months, up 4 points in two years.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.4% ($181M paid over 12 months, 29% of earnings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetNet debt of $7.8B, 103% of the market cap (Jun 30, 2026).
Balance sheetDebt is 2.2× shareholders’ equity.
GrowthSales grew 2.1% over the last 12 months, below the 6.7% median for the 376 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
TechnicalRSI(14) of 88: overbought after a strong run.
RiskReports earnings Nov 3 (consensus EPS $0.23): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 12.3 · FCF yield 26.2% · ROE 17%
Valuation
- P/E
- 12.3×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
- Price / FCF
- 3.8×
- FCF yield
- 26.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- 5.7×
- Price / sales
- 1.46×
- Price / book
- 2.16×
- Market cap
- $7.5Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $15.3B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $5.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +2.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +5.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $613M
- Net income growth
- −2%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 25.0%
- Net margin
- 11.9%
- FCF margin
- 38.1%
- Return on equity
- 17%
- Return on invested capital
- 8%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $4M
- Total debt
- $7.8B
- Net cash
- −$7.8B
- Debt / equity
- 2.24×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $2.0B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +8%
- Dividend yield
- 2.40%$181M paid
- Payout ratio
- 29%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $712M9.5% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $55M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From ADT’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $1.2B · Sales +2%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield26.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin23%
- Gross margin81%
- Operating margin24%
- Return on invested capital9%
- Return on equity17%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+2%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.9×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $9.83
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$6.08−38.1%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$9.83you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$9.87+0.4%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 88 · 5 days +42.9%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.23
- Year-ago EPS$0.22
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
ADT is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on ADT in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Diversified Commercial Services
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.