QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Diversified Commercial Services
Allegion ALLE
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s at its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate, 3% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $177.46−5%
- Market Value
- $180.73price +3%
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.41
4 bullish · 1 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $186.44
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$125.65−32.6%
- Fair value est.base case$177.46−4.8%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 22$180.73−3.1%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$186.44you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$187.06+0.3%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 7.5% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 5.5%; bull = 8.5% and 9.5% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ALLE’s free cash flow would need to grow about 8% a year for five years; our estimate uses 8%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ALLE moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.3× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.41
- Volatility
- 30% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.18
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.05
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 4.7% (price / FCF 21.5×): $740M of free cash in the last 12 months.
GrowthSales grew 10% to $4.4B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 22%, above the 13% median for the 156 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityGross margin of 45%, above the 39% median for the 120 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Top bearish points 1 of 5
ValuationP/E of 23.0×, above the 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Allegion in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Diversified Commercial Services
All fundamentals
P/E 23.0 · FCF yield 4.7% · Sales +10%
Valuation
- P/E
- 23.0×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 21.5×
- FCF yield
- 4.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.62×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $15.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $4.4B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +10.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +7.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $8.04
- EPS growth, last FY
- +9.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- $691M
- Net income growth
- +8%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 45.1%
- Operating margin
- 21.5%
- Net margin
- 15.7%
- FCF margin
- 16.9%
- Return on equity
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 9.6×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $740M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +9%
- Dividend yield
- 1.16%$184M paid
- Payout ratio
- 27%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $280M1.8% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $30M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026. From Allegion’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $177.46 · MV $180.73 · FCF value $171.10
Assumes 7.5% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 7.5% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $8.68 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 22, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 82 · 5 days +4.2%
The business
FCF $0.6B · Sales +10%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.6B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.7%
- Free-cash-flow margin13%
- Gross margin45%
- Operating margin24%
- Return on invested capital21%
- Return on equity34%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+10%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.7×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
ALLE is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.