QualityDipStocks / Basic Materials · Precious Metals
Agnico Eagle Mines AEM
Deep dip with a setup armed: a close above $169.29 triggers it. 34% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $269.57+63%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −34%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.76
5 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $165.38
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$136.34−17.6%
- Stopreference, not an order$161.54−2.3%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$165.38you are here
- Triggerclose above fires the setup$169.29+2.4%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$252.19+52.5%
- Fair value est.base case$269.57+63.0%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, AEM’s free cash flow would need to grow about 6% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much AEM moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.8× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.76
- Volatility
- 48% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.47
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.44
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 134% to $8.86 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 71.9% in FY2025 from 55.7% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales grew 44% to $11.9B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
SetupA capitulation-reversal setup is armed: a close above $169.29 triggers it, with a reference stop at $161.54.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 34% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
Top bearish points 3 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 48.3% in FY2022 from 51.0% in FY2020 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsDividend yield of 0.9%, below the 1.2% median for the 17 Basic Materials companies we cover.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Agnico Eagle Mines in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Precious Metals
All fundamentals
P/E 18.7 · FCF yield 5.3% · Sales +44%
Valuation
- P/E
- 18.7×Basic Materials median 20.5×
- Price / FCF
- 18.9×
- FCF yield
- 5.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 6.99×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $83.3Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $11.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +43.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +27.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $8.86
- EPS growth, last FY
- +134.4%
- Net income, 12 months
- $4.5B
- Net income growth
- +135%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 71.9%
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 37.5%
- FCF margin
- 36.9%
- Return on equity
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $4.4B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +105%
- Dividend yield
- 0.87%$728M paid
- Payout ratio
- 16%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $683M0.8% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025. From Agnico Eagle Mines’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $269.57 · FCF value $195.80
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 27.5% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $8.74 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025), from the 40-F filed Mar 19, 2026.
Setup & signals
Armed · trigger $169.29
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 35 · 5 days −4.9%
The business
FCF $4.2B · Sales +17%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$4.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.7%
- Free-cash-flow margin28%
- Gross margin63%
- Operating margin59%
- Return on invested capital23%
- Return on equity23%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+17%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.3×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
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