QualityDipStocks / Basic Materials · Precious Metals
Newmont NEM
On dip watch: 21% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well below our fair value estimate, 3% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $295.72+177%
- Market Value
- $110.25price −3%
- Off 52-wk high
- −21%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.80
5 bullish · 2 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $106.61
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$78.90−26.0%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$106.61you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 22$110.25+3.4%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$135.14+26.8%
- Fair value est.base case$295.72+177.4%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, NEM’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 3% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much NEM moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.7× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.80
- Volatility
- 48% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.48
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.46
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 119% to $6.39 in FY2025.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 9.0% (price / FCF 11.1×): $10.1B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $295.72, 177% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
ValuationP/E of 12.1× vs a 20.5× median for the 19 Basic Materials companies we cover.
GrowthSales compounded 24% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Top bearish points 2 of 5
Cash returnsDividend yield of 1.0%, below the 1.2% median for the 17 Basic Materials companies we cover.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Newmont in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Precious Metals
All fundamentals
P/E 12.1 · FCF yield 9.0% · ROE 27%
Valuation
- P/E
- 12.1×Basic Materials median 20.5×
- Price / FCF
- 11.1×
- FCF yield
- 9.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 4.21×
- Price / book
- 3.14×
- Market cap
- $112Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $108B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $26.6B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +23.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +23.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $8.62
- EPS growth, last FY
- +118.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $9.2B
- Net income growth
- +29%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 34.7%
- FCF margin
- 37.9%
- Return on equity
- 27%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $8.8B
- Total debt
- $5.1B
- Net cash
- $3.7B
- Debt / equity
- 0.14×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $10.1B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +65%
- Dividend yield
- 0.98%$1.1B paid
- Payout ratio
- 12%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $5.7B5.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −4.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Newmont’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $295.72 · MV $110.25 · FCF value $230.97
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 23.9% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $9.59 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 22, 2026. Net cash $3.7B, not added.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 36 · 5 days −2.1%
The business
FCF $10.1B · Sales +15%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$10.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield8.7%
- Free-cash-flow margin38%
- Gross margin60%
- Operating margin56%
- Return on invested capital29%
- Return on equity27%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+15%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.2×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when NEM fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on NEM or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.