QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Apparel retail
American Eagle Outfitters AEO
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 30% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate, 17% over its Market Value.
Worth knowing
- Share count down 11% in 2 years
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $33.08+67%
- Market Value
- $16.91price +17%
- Off 52-wk high
- −30%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.18
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 30% below its 52-week high (Jan 6), but the business held up: revenue +7.7%, revenue growth rate +10.3 pts, earnings per share +64.2%.
Some numbers held up (revenue +7.7%, revenue growth rate +10.3 pts, earnings per share +64.2%), others slipped. The price is 30% below its 52-week high.
The price is 30% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 10 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$5.3B → $5.7B (+7.7%)held up
- Revenue growth rate−1.2% → +9.2% a year (+10.3 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$1.21 → $1.98 (+64.2%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$157M → $343M (+118.9%)held up
- Operating margin5.1% → 7.8% (+2.7 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding−1.6% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)+5.7% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Discretionary)stock −30%, sector median +5% since Jan 6changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −30%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +64% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 31.0× at the high → 9.8× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Nov 1, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Aug 1, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($28.19, Jan 6) the price assumed about 15%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($14.53, Sep 10) about −11%; today about −5%. The last 3 years delivered 10%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 10%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $28.19Jan 6 | $14.53Sep 10 | $19.75 |
| Implied growth | +15% | −11% | −5% |
| P/E | 23.4× | 7.3× | 10.0× |
| P/FCF | 31.0× | 7.2× | 9.8× |
| EV/Sales | 0.9× | 0.4× | 0.6× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.6% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.6%; bull = 8.5% and 5.6% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, AEO’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 5% a year for five years; our estimate uses 4%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much AEO moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.1× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.18
- Volatility
- 52% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.29
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.23
How it ranks
Where AEO stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 3 of 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate67% · price below our base caseTop 17%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield10% · free cash flow vs market capTop 11%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield4.9% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 28%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+9.2% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 48%of 1,814
- Operating margin7.8% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 36%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital20% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 22%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $33.08 · MV $16.91 · FCF value $31.42
Assumes 3.6% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 3.6% a year FY23–FY26), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.02 a share (trailing 12 months to Aug 1, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Sep 10, 2026. Net cash $93M, not added.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $33.08, 67% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 10.2% (price / FCF 9.8×): $343M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 10.0× vs a 20.7× median for the 341 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 127% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 4.9×: modest for what the business earns before interest, tax and depreciation.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 35% to $1.09 in FY2026.
GrowthSales grew 3.6% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 5.4% median for the 380 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 7.8%, below the 11% median for the 341 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 16.8% above its Market Value of $16.91, the average price paid since the Sep 9 filing.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 3.1× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
P/E 10.0 · FCF yield 10.2% · ROE 20%
Valuation
- P/E
- 10.0×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
- Price / FCF
- 9.8×
- FCF yield
- 10.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- 4.9×
- Price / sales
- 0.58×
- Price / book
- 1.91×
- Market cap
- $3.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $3.3B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $5.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +9.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +3.6%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.94
- EPS growth, last FY
- −35.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- $337M
- Net income growth
- +71%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 40.5%
- Operating margin
- 7.8%
- Net margin
- 5.9%
- FCF margin
- 6.0%
- Return on equity
- 20%
- Return on invested capital
- 20%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $148M
- Total debt
- $55M
- Net cash
- $93M
- Debt / equity
- 0.03×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $343M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +127%
- Dividend yield
- 2.51%$84M paid
- Payout ratio
- 25%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $79M2.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.9%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $41M
Trailing 12 months to Aug 1, 2026; balance sheet at Aug 1, 2026. From American Eagle Outfitters’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales +8%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield10.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin4%
- Gross margin37%
- Operating margin2%
- Return on invested capital3%
- Return on equity20%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+8%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.1×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $19.75
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$14.53−26.4%
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 9$16.91−14.4%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$19.75you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$28.19+42.7%
- Fair value est.base case$33.08+67.5%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 67 · 5 days +5.0%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
AEO is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on American Eagle Outfitters in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Apparel retail
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.