QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Apparel retail
Boot Barn BOOT
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 34% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Down 35% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 17%
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $102.67−25%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −34%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 1.08
4 bullish · 2 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 34% below its 52-week high (Dec 11), but the business held up: revenue +16.8%, earnings per share +22.8%, free cash flow +127.6%.
Some numbers held up (revenue +16.8%, earnings per share +22.8%, free cash flow +127.6%), others slipped. The price is 34% below its 52-week high.
The price is 34% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$2.1B → $2.4B (+16.8%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+17.8% → +16.8% a year (−1.0 pts)about the same
- Earnings per share, 12 months$6.77 → $8.31 (+22.8%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$56M → $127M (+127.6%)held up
- Operating margin13.3% → 13.8% (+0.4 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding−1.1% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Discretionary)stock −34%, sector median +7% since Dec 11changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −34%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +23% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 114.2× at the high → 32.8× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 27, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 26, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($207.98, Dec 11) the price assumed about 40%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($111.69, Oct 27) about 14%; today about 16%. The last 3 years delivered 11%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 11%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $207.98Dec 11 | $111.69Oct 27 | $137.32 |
| Implied growth | +40% | +14% | +16% |
| P/E | 30.7× | 14.1× | 16.5× |
| P/FCF | 114.2× | 29.3× | 32.8× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 10.8% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 8.8%; bull = 8.5% and 12.8% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, BOOT’s free cash flow would need to grow about 16% a year for five years; our estimate uses 11%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much BOOT moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 3.8× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.08
- Volatility
- 49% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.28
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.20
How it ranks
Where BOOT stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate25% · price above our base caseLowest 32%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield3.1% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 38%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield2% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 41%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+17% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 31%of 1,814
- Operating margin14% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 44%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $102.67
Assumes 10.8% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 10.8% a year FY23–FY26), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $4.19 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 26, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 28, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 128% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthSales grew 17% to $2.4B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 25% to $7.35 in FY2026.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 20% over the last 12 months.
Top bearish points 2 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $102.67, 25% below the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 3.1%, below the 5.5% median for the 352 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
All fundamentals
P/E 16.5 · FCF yield 3.1% · ROE 20%
Valuation
- P/E
- 16.5×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
- Price / FCF
- 32.8×
- FCF yield
- 3.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 1.73×
- Price / book
- 3.02×
- Market cap
- $4.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.4B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +16.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +10.8%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $8.26
- EPS growth, last FY
- +25.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $253M
- Net income growth
- +21%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 38.6%
- Operating margin
- 13.8%
- Net margin
- 10.4%
- FCF margin
- 5.3%
- Return on equity
- 20%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $97M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $127M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +128%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $85M2.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $18M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 26, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 26, 2026. From Boot Barn’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.0B · Sales +15%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow margin0%
- Gross margin38%
- Operating margin12%
- Return on invested capital10%
- Return on equity20%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+15%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.9×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $137.32
- Fair value est.base case$102.67−25.2%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$111.69−18.7%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$137.32you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$207.98+51.5%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 64 · 5 days +20.3%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
BOOT is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Boot Barn in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Apparel retail
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.