QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Aerospace
AAR AIR
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 31% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading below our fair value estimate, 3% over its Market Value.
Worth knowing
- Down 31% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 22%
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $123.48+17%
- Market Value
- $102.34price +3%
- Off 52-wk high
- −31%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.67
5 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 31% below its 52-week high (Aug 17), but the business held up: revenue +5.4%, revenue growth rate +3.0 pts, free cash flow +157.2%.
Some numbers held up (revenue +5.4%, revenue growth rate +3.0 pts, free cash flow +157.2%), others slipped (shares outstanding more shares, each owns less). The price is 31% below its 52-week high.
The price is 31% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: shares outstanding more shares, each owns less.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$3.3B → $3.5B (+5.4%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+19.0% → +22.0% a year (+3.0 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$4.89 → $4.85 (−0.8%)about the same
- Free cash flow, 12 months$62M → $160M (+157.2%)held up
- Shares outstanding+3.9% (more shares, each owns less)changed
- Net cash (cash minus debt)+0.8% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Industrials)stock −31%, sector median −9% since Aug 17changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −31%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +5% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 95.0× at the high → 26.4× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to May 31, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Aug 31, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($153.71, Aug 17) the price assumed about 37%/yr free-cash-flow growth; today about 12%. The last 3 years delivered 18%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 18%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $153.71Aug 17 | $77.35Nov 20 | $105.63 |
| Implied growth | +37% | n/a | +12% |
| P/E | 31.4× | 95.4× | 21.8× |
| P/FCF | 95.0× | — | 26.4× |
| EV/Sales | 2.0× | 1.3× | 1.4× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, AIR’s free cash flow would need to grow about 12% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much AIR moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.5× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.67
- Volatility
- 45% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.48
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.41
How it ranks
Where AIR stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 3 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate17% · price below our base caseTop 35%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield3.8% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 48%of 1,391
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+22% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 23%of 1,814
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $123.48 · MV $102.34 · FCF value $18.86
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 18.4% a year FY23–FY26; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $4.00 a share (trailing 12 months to Aug 31, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Sep 29, 2026. Net debt $775M, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $123.48, 17% above the price.
GrowthSales compounded 18% a year from FY2023 to FY2026.
GrowthSales grew 22% to $3.5B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationP/E of 21.8×, below the 26.5× median for the 220 Industrials companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 2.4×, below the 3.4× median for the 237 Industrials companies we cover.
Top bearish points 3 of 5
Cash returnsShare count up 11.1% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
ProfitabilityGross margin of 19%, below the 33% median for the 211 Industrials companies we cover.
RiskSwings hard: beta 1.67 vs the S&P 500 and 45% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
All fundamentals
P/E 21.8 · FCF yield 3.8% · ROE 13%
Valuation
- P/E
- 21.8×Industrials median 26.5×
- Price / FCF
- 26.4×
- FCF yield
- 3.8%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 1.21×
- Price / book
- 2.42×
- Market cap
- $4.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $5.0B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $3.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +22.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +18.4%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.91
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/an/m: EPS a year ago near zero
- Net income, 12 months
- $193M
- Net income growth
- n/an/m: earnings a year ago near zero
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 19.1%
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 5.5%
- FCF margin
- 4.6%
- Return on equity
- 13%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $104M
- Total debt
- $880M
- Net cash
- −$775M
- Debt / equity
- 0.50×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $160M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +11.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $20M
Trailing 12 months to Aug 31, 2026; balance sheet at Aug 31, 2026. From AAR’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.0B · Sales +24%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.8%
- Free-cash-flow margin1%
- Gross margin19%
- Operating margin8%
- Return on invested capital8%
- Return on equity13%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+24%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.4×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $105.63
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$77.35−26.8%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 26$102.34−3.1%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$105.63you are here
- Fair value est.base case$123.48+16.9%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$153.71+45.5%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 53 · 5 days +8.5%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
AIR is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on AAR in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Aerospace
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.