QualityDipStocks / Finance · Specialty Insurers
Arthur J. Gallagher & AJG
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s at its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $275.05at the price
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.40
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $276.07
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$192.00−30.5%
- Fair value est.base case$275.05−0.4%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$276.07you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$276.07at the price
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, AJG’s free cash flow would need to grow about 15% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much AJG moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.5× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.40
- Volatility
- 32% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.16
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.34
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 99.7% in FY2022 from 87.4% in FY2020 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales grew 26% to $15.8B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 18% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 16% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 45.1× vs a 13.5× median for the 151 Finance companies we cover.
Balance sheetDebt rose 1848% to $13.5B from FY2023 to FY2025.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 12% to $5.74 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity is only 7% over the last 12 months.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Arthur J. Gallagher & in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Specialty Insurers
All fundamentals
P/E 45.1 · FCF yield 3.2% · ROE 7%
Valuation
- P/E
- 45.1×Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- 31.0×
- FCF yield
- 3.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 4.49×
- Price / book
- 2.98×
- Market cap
- $70.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $82.8B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $15.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +26.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +17.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $6.03
- EPS growth, last FY
- −11.7%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.6B
- Net income growth
- −5%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 10.0%
- FCF margin
- 14.5%
- Return on equity
- 7%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.4B
- Total debt
- $13.5B
- Net cash
- −$12.1B
- Debt / equity
- 0.57×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $2.3B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +16%
- Dividend yield
- 0.98%$693M paid
- Payout ratio
- 44%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $65M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Arthur J. Gallagher &’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $275.05
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 17.7% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $8.92 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 70 · 5 days +3.0%
The business
FCF $2.0B · Sales +24%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$2.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.9%
- Return on equity7%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+24%
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
AJG is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.