QualityDipStocks / Finance · Specialty Insurers
Aon AON
Not in a dip by our rules: 16% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $385.24+20%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −16%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.28
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $321.67
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$269.45−16.2%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$321.67you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$381.26+18.5%
- Fair value est.base case$385.24+19.8%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 11.2% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 9.2%; bull = 8.5% and 13.2% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, AON’s free cash flow would need to grow about 8% a year for five years; our estimate uses 11%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much AON moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.2× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.28
- Volatility
- 29% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.13
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.29
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $385.24, 20% above the price.
ValuationP/E of 17.4× is 28% below its own average of 24.3× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 44% over the last 12 months.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 36% to $17.02 in FY2025.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 79 points in two fiscal years, to 40% in FY2025.
Balance sheetDebt rose 36% to $15.2B from FY2023 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 25.3% in FY2025 from 28.3% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetDebt is 2.8× shareholders’ equity.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Aon in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Specialty Insurers
All fundamentals
P/E 17.4 · FCF yield 4.8% · ROE 44%
Valuation
- P/E
- 17.4×3-yr-end avg 24.3× · Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- 21.0×
- FCF yield
- 4.8%
- EV / EBITDA
- 16.8×
- Price / sales
- 3.88×
- Price / book
- 6.78×
- Market cap
- $68.5Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $81.2B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $17.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +3.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +11.2%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $18.27
- EPS growth, last FY
- +36.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $3.9B
- Net income growth
- +45%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 26.3%
- Net margin
- 22.2%
- FCF margin
- 18.5%
- Return on equity
- 44%
- Return on invested capital
- 16%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $15.3B
- Total debt
- $28.0B
- Net cash
- −$12.7B
- Debt / equity
- 2.78×
- Interest coverage
- 6.2×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $3.3B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +7%
- Dividend yield
- 0.98%$672M paid
- Payout ratio
- 17%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.7%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $368M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Aon’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $385.24
Assumes 11.2% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 11.2% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $15.33 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 28, 2026. Net debt $11.0B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 70 · 5 days +6.0%
The business
FCF $3.3B · Sales +3%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$3.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.8%
- Return on equity42%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+3%
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when AON fires a reversal signal
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