QualityDipStocks / Finance · Specialty Insurers
Marsh MRSH
Not in a dip: trading near its 52-week high.
A quality company trading near our fair value estimate, 4% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $194.56−3%
- Market Value
- $193.03price +4%
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.40
2 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $200.62
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$157.32−21.6%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 15$193.03−3.8%
- Fair value est.base case$194.56−3.0%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$200.62at the price
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$200.62you are here
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 9.2% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 7.2%; bull = 8.5% and 11.2% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MRSH’s free cash flow would need to grow about 10% a year for five years; our estimate uses 9%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MRSH moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.0× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.40
- Volatility
- 26% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.20
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.38
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 2 of 5
Cash returnsShare count down 3.0% in a year: $3.0B of buybacks over 12 months.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
Balance sheetDebt rose 45% to $19.6B from FY2023 to FY2025.
ValuationP/E of 23.8×, above the 13.5× median for the 151 Finance companies we cover.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 3.1% in the last fiscal year, below the 17% median for the 137 Finance companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 7.6% over the last 12 months, below the 11% median for the 142 Finance companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Marsh in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Specialty Insurers
All fundamentals
P/E 23.8 · FCF yield 4.3% · Sales +8%
Valuation
- P/E
- 23.8×3-yr-end avg 24.4× · Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- 23.1×
- FCF yield
- 4.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.38×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $96.1Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $28.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +7.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +9.2%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $8.36
- EPS growth, last FY
- +3.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- $4.0B
- Net income growth
- −2%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 21.4%
- Net margin
- 14.2%
- FCF margin
- 14.6%
- Return on equity
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 6.3×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $4.2B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −14%
- Dividend yield
- 1.87%$1.8B paid
- Payout ratio
- 44%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $3.0B3.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −3.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $418M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026. From Marsh’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $194.56 · MV $193.03
Assumes 9.2% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 9.2% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $8.67 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 15, 2026. Net debt $20.3B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 71 · 5 days +1.6%
The business
FCF $4.2B · Sales +8%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$4.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.4%
- Return on equity27%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+8%
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when MRSH fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on MRSH or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.