QualityDipStocks / Technology · Semiconductors
NXP Semiconductors NXPI
Not in a dip by our rules: 22% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $218.69−16%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −22%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.75
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $259.61
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$184.19−29.1%
- Fair value est.base case$218.69−15.8%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$259.61you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$332.67+28.1%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, NXPI’s free cash flow would need to grow about 6% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much NXPI moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.8× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.75
- Volatility
- 49% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.46
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.51
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 85% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ValuationP/E of 20.4× vs a 33.9× median for the 138 Technology companies we cover.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 33% over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 29% over the last 12 months.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $218.69, 16% below the price.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 12 points in two fiscal years, to 20% in FY2025.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 24.8% in FY2025 from 27.6% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 18% to $7.95 in FY2025.
GrowthSales shrank 2% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on NXP Semiconductors in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Semiconductors
All fundamentals
P/E 20.4 · FCF yield 5.3% · ROE 29%
Valuation
- P/E
- 20.4×3-yr-end avg 23.4× · Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 18.8×
- FCF yield
- 5.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- 14.1×
- Price / sales
- 4.78×
- Price / book
- 5.45×
- Market cap
- $65.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $74.9B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $13.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +14.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −2.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $12.71
- EPS growth, last FY
- −18.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $3.2B
- Net income growth
- +57%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 56.4%
- Operating margin
- 33.0%
- Net margin
- 23.4%
- FCF margin
- 25.4%
- Return on equity
- 29%
- Return on invested capital
- 17%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $3.9B
- Total debt
- $13.0B
- Net cash
- −$9.0B
- Debt / equity
- 1.07×
- Interest coverage
- 9.9×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $3.5B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +85%
- Dividend yield
- 1.55%$1.0B paid
- Payout ratio
- 32%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $647M1.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $428M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 27, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 27, 2026. From NXP Semiconductors’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $218.69 · FCF value $322.58
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -2.4% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $13.80 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 27, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 27, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 64 · 5 days +10.5%
The business
FCF $3.3B · Sales +19%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$3.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin24%
- Gross margin56%
- Operating margin29%
- Return on invested capital14%
- Return on equity30%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+19%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.4×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when NXPI fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on NXPI or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.