QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Industrial machinery
Alliance Laundry ALH
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 20% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $32.77+46%
- Market Value
- $22.58at the price
- Off 52-wk high
- −20%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.25
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 20% below its 52-week high (Aug 5), but the business held up: earnings per share +26.4%, free cash flow +30.9%, operating margin +0.4 pts.
Some numbers held up (earnings per share +26.4%, free cash flow +30.9%, operating margin +0.4 pts), others slipped. The price is 20% below its 52-week high.
The price is 20% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 8 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$1.7B → $1.8B (+1.7%)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$0.70 → $0.88 (+26.4%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$196M → $256M (+30.9%)held up
- Operating margin18.7% → 19.1% (+0.4 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding+0.1% (more shares, each owns less)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Industrials)stock −20%, sector median −8% since Aug 5about the same
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −20%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +26% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 29.1× at the high → 17.9× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Mar 31, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($28.01, Aug 5) the price assumed about 14%/yr free-cash-flow growth; today about 5%. The last 3 years delivered 12%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 12%/yr (revenue)
| High | Now | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $28.01Aug 5 | $22.51 |
| Implied growth | +14% | +5% |
| P/E | 40.3× | 25.6× |
| P/FCF | 29.1× | 17.9× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 11.9% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 9.9%; bull = 8.5% and 13.9% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ALH’s free cash flow would need to grow about 5% a year for five years; our estimate uses 12%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ALH moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 2.8× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.25
- Volatility
- 35% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.45
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.31
How it ranks
Where ALH stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate46% · price below our base caseTop 23%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield5.6% · free cash flow vs market capTop 35%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0.1% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 20%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+9.9% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 49%of 1,814
- Operating margin19% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 30%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $32.77 · MV $22.58 · FCF value $30.01
Assumes 11.9% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 11.9% a year FY23–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.26 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 13, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $32.77, 46% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 5.6% (price / FCF 17.9×): $256M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 110%, above the 13% median for the 234 Industrials companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 10% to $1.8B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthSales grew 12% a year over the last three fiscal years, above the 4.3% median for the 257 Industrials companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsShare count up 16.4% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
ValuationPrice / book of 9.1×, above the 3.4× median for the 237 Industrials companies we cover.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 0.0% in the last fiscal year, below the 6.4% median for the 198 Industrials companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 4.0× EBITDA (limit 3×).
RiskReports earnings Nov 10 (consensus EPS $0.32): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 25.6 · FCF yield 5.6% · ROE 110%
Valuation
- P/E
- 25.6×Industrials median 26.5×
- Price / FCF
- 17.9×
- FCF yield
- 5.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 2.58×
- Price / book
- 9.12×
- Market cap
- $4.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +9.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +11.9%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.90
- EPS growth, last FY
- 0.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $179M
- Net income growth
- +127%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 37.7%
- Operating margin
- 19.1%
- Net margin
- 10.1%
- FCF margin
- 14.4%
- Return on equity
- 110%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $159M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 3.3×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $256M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $4M0.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +16.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $22M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Alliance Laundry’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales +7%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin14%
- Gross margin38%
- Operating margin22%
- Return on invested capital14%
- Return on equity110%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+7%
- Net debt / EBITDA4.0×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $22.51
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$19.06−15.3%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$22.51you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 13$22.58+0.3%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$28.01+24.4%
- Fair value est.base case$32.77+45.6%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 62 · 5 days +6.4%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 10
- DateTue Nov 10, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.32
- Year-ago EPS$0.28
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
ALH is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Alliance Laundry in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Industrial machinery
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.