QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Industrial machinery
Badger Meter BMI
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 16% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate, 4% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $152.15−4%
- Market Value
- $151.24price +4%
- Off 52-wk high
- −16%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.62
4 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Repricing: business changed
The price is 16% below its 52-week high (Nov 7), but the business held up: shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more.
Some numbers held up (shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more), others slipped (revenue growth rate −14.3 pts, free cash flow −14.4%, revenue −2.2%). The price is 16% below its 52-week high.
The price is 16% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue growth rate −14.3 pts, free cash flow −14.4%, revenue −2.2%.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$901M → $881M (−2.2%)changed
- Revenue growth rate+12.1% → −2.2% a year (−14.3 pts)changed
- Earnings per share, 12 months$4.69 → $4.38 (−6.6%)changed
- Free cash flow, 12 months$166M → $142M (−14.4%)changed
- Operating margin19.9% → 18.8% (−1.2 pts)about the same
- Shares outstanding−2.4% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Industrials)stock −16%, sector median +11% since Nov 7changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −16%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −7% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 33.4× at the high → 32.0× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($187.87, Nov 7) the price assumed about 16%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($113.41, Apr 20) about 7%; today about 16%. The last 3 years delivered 30%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 30%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $187.87Nov 7 | $113.41Apr 20 | $157.69 |
| Implied growth | +16% | +7% | +16% |
| P/E | 40.0× | 25.5× | 36.0× |
| P/FCF | 33.4× | 19.7× | 32.0× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, BMI’s free cash flow would need to grow about 16% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much BMI moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.8× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.62
- Volatility
- 48% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.16
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.09
How it ranks
Where BMI stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate4% · price above our base caseTop 47%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield3.1% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 39%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield1% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 31%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−2.2% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 8%of 1,814
- Operating margin19% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 31%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $152.15 · MV $151.24 · FCF value $105.13
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 17.5% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $4.93 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 23, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
GrowthSales compounded 17% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 20.0% in FY2025 from 16.8% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsShare count down 2.4% in a year.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 19% over the last 12 months.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
GrowthSales growth slowed to −2% over the last 12 months, from 17% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
ValuationP/E of 36.0× vs a 26.5× median for the 220 Industrials companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 7.0×, above the 3.4× median for the 237 Industrials companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 3.1%, below the 3.6% median for the 250 Industrials companies we cover.
All fundamentals
P/E 36.0 · FCF yield 3.1% · ROE 19%
Valuation
- P/E
- 36.0×Industrials median 26.5×
- Price / FCF
- 32.0×
- FCF yield
- 3.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 5.17×
- Price / book
- 6.99×
- Market cap
- $4.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $881M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −2.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +17.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.33
- EPS growth, last FY
- +13.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $127M
- Net income growth
- −9%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 41.6%
- Operating margin
- 18.8%
- Net margin
- 14.4%
- FCF margin
- 16.2%
- Return on equity
- 19%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $142M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −14%
- Dividend yield
- 1.05%$48M paid
- Payout ratio
- 38%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- −2.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $11M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Badger Meter’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales 0%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.1%
- Free-cash-flow margin14%
- Gross margin42%
- Operating margin20%
- Return on invested capital23%
- Return on equity19%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)0%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.2×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $157.69
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$113.41−28.1%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 22$151.24−4.1%
- Fair value est.base case$152.15−3.5%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$157.69you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$187.87+19.1%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 69 · 5 days +1.1%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
BMI is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Badger Meter in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Industrial machinery
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.