QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Manufacturing
Amcor AMCR
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 6% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate, 7% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $81.75+73%
- Market Value
- $44.48price +7%
- Off 52-wk high
- −6%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.80
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $47.39
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$36.69−22.6%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 12$44.48−6.1%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$47.39you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$50.58+6.7%
- Fair value est.base case$81.75+72.5%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, AMCR’s free cash flow would need to grow about 5% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much AMCR moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, and its own price swings are 2.5× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.80
- Volatility
- 31% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.33
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.16
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $81.75, 73% above the price.
GrowthSales grew 57% to $23.5B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 49% to $2.38 in FY2026.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 5.4% ($1.2B paid over 12 months).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 52% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetDebt rose 109% to $14.0B from FY2024 to FY2026.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 2.8× over the last 12 months.
Balance sheetNet debt of $12.9B, 59% of the market cap (Jun 30, 2026).
Cash returnsPays out more in dividends than it earns: $1.2B paid vs $1.1B of net income.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 4.0× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Amcor in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer Discretionary
All fundamentals
P/E 19.9 · FCF yield 5.6% · ROE 9%
Valuation
- P/E
- 19.9×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 17.9×
- FCF yield
- 5.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- 10.3×
- Price / sales
- 0.94×
- Price / book
- 1.86×
- Market cap
- $22.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $34.9B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $23.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +56.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +17.0%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.38
- EPS growth, last FY
- +48.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.1B
- Net income growth
- +117%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 20.0%
- Operating margin
- 8.1%
- Net margin
- 4.7%
- FCF margin
- 5.2%
- Return on equity
- 9%
- Return on invested capital
- 7%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.1B
- Total debt
- $14.0B
- Net cash
- −$12.9B
- Debt / equity
- 1.19×
- Interest coverage
- 2.8×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.2B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +52%
- Dividend yield
- 5.44%$1.2B paid
- Payout ratio
- 108%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1M0.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $83M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Amcor’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $81.75 · MV $44.48 · FCF value $66.85
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 17.0% a year FY23–FY26; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.65 a share (fiscal year to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-K filed Aug 14, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 74 · 5 days +2.8%
The business
FCF $1.2B · Sales +26%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin5%
- Gross margin20%
- Operating margin9%
- Return on invested capital7%
- Return on equity9%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+26%
- Net debt / EBITDA4.0×
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.96
- Year-ago EPS$0.95
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
AMCR is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.