QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Food Distributors
US Foods USFD
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 7% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate, 3% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $75.93−27%
- Market Value
- $100.50price +3%
- Off 52-wk high
- −7%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.16
3 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $103.61
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$70.05−32.4%
- Fair value est.base case$75.93−26.7%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 2$100.50−3.0%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$103.61you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$110.94+7.1%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 5.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 3.0%; bull = 8.5% and 7.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, USFD’s free cash flow would need to grow about 11% a year for five years; our estimate uses 5%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much USFD moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.4× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.16
- Volatility
- 30% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.07
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.02
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 46% to $2.94 in FY2025.
Cash returnsShare count down 5.2% in a year: $1.1B of buybacks over 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 16% over the last 12 months, up 5 points in two years.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $75.93, 27% below the price.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 3.1%, below the 13% median for the 156 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationP/E of 31.5× vs a 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 3.1× EBITDA (limit 3×).
RiskReports earnings Nov 5 (consensus EPS $1.18): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on US Foods in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Food Distributors
All fundamentals
P/E 31.5 · FCF yield 4.1% · ROE 16%
Valuation
- P/E
- 31.5×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 24.2×
- FCF yield
- 4.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- 16.2×
- Price / sales
- 0.57×
- Price / book
- 5.35×
- Market cap
- $22.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $28.1B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $40.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +3.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +5.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $3.25
- EPS growth, last FY
- +45.5%
- Net income, 12 months
- $728M
- Net income growth
- +32%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 17.6%
- Operating margin
- 3.1%
- Net margin
- 1.8%
- FCF margin
- 2.4%
- Return on equity
- 16%
- Return on invested capital
- 10%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $56M
- Total debt
- $5.2B
- Net cash
- −$5.2B
- Debt / equity
- 1.22×
- Interest coverage
- 4.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $946M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +2%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.1B4.8% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −5.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $92M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 27, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 27, 2026. From US Foods’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $75.93 · MV $100.50 · FCF value $110.84
Assumes 5.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 5.0% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $4.28 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 27, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 61 · 5 days +2.7%
The business
FCF $0.9B · Sales +4%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.9B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin2%
- Gross margin18%
- Operating margin3%
- Return on invested capital11%
- Return on equity16%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+4%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.1×
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, before the open
- Consensus EPS$1.18
- Year-ago EPS$1
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
USFD is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.