QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Containers/Packaging
Smurfit WestRock SW
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 17% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $59.53+38%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −17%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.38
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $43.09
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$32.79−23.9%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$43.09you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$51.84+20.3%
- Fair value est.base case$59.53+38.2%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, SW’s free cash flow would need to grow about 9% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much SW moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.3× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.38
- Volatility
- 43% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.41
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.28
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $59.53, 38% above the price.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 62% to $1.33 in FY2025.
GrowthSales compounded 32% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 4.1% ($924M paid over 12 months).
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 8.4×: modest for what the business earns before interest, tax and depreciation.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales growth slowed to 2% over the last 12 months, from 32% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 743243200 points in two fiscal years, to 4% in FY2025.
Balance sheetDebt rose 260% to $13.2B from FY2023 to FY2025.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 1.8× over the last 12 months.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 3.1× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Smurfit WestRock in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Containers/Packaging
All fundamentals
P/E 45.6 · FCF yield 4.5% · ROE 3%
Valuation
- P/E
- 45.6×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 22.3×
- FCF yield
- 4.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- 8.4×
- Price / sales
- 0.72×
- Price / book
- 1.26×
- Market cap
- $22.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $35.2B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $31.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +1.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +32.2%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.94
- EPS growth, last FY
- +62.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $497M
- Net income growth
- +41%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 17.9%
- Operating margin
- 4.7%
- Net margin
- 1.6%
- FCF margin
- 3.2%
- Return on equity
- 3%
- Return on invested capital
- 3%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $677M
- Total debt
- $13.2B
- Net cash
- −$12.6B
- Debt / equity
- 0.73×
- Interest coverage
- 1.8×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.0B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/an/m: free cash flow a year ago near zero
- Dividend yield
- 4.08%$924M paid
- Payout ratio
- 186%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $115M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Smurfit WestRock’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $59.53 · FCF value $41.06
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 32.2% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.93 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Jul 31, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 53 · 5 days +3.0%
The business
FCF $0.8B · Sales +1%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.8B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.8%
- Free-cash-flow margin3%
- Gross margin17%
- Operating margin5%
- Return on invested capital4%
- Return on equity3%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+1%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.0×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
SW is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.