QualityDipStocks / Technology · Semiconductors
Advanced Micro Devices AMD
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 22% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate, 8% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $145.14−71%
- Market Value
- $547.91price −8%
- Off 52-wk high
- −22%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 3.29
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $504.80
- Fair value est.base case$145.14−71.2%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$190.95−62.2%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$504.80you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 17$547.91+8.5%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$649.42+28.6%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 13.6% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 11.6%; bull = 8.5% and 15.6% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, AMD’s free cash flow would need to grow about 38% a year for five years; our estimate uses 14%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much AMD moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 5.4× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 3.29
- Volatility
- 69% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.61
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.76
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 165% to $2.65 in FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 40% to $41.3B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 108% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 10.7% in FY2025 from 1.8% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationTrades 7.9% below its Market Value of $547.91, the average price paid since the Aug 17 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $145.14, 71% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 130.2× vs a 33.9× median for the 138 Technology companies we cover.
Balance sheetDebt rose 27% to $4.1B from FY2023 to FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
RiskSwings hard: beta 3.29 vs the S&P 500 and 69% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Advanced Micro Devices in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Semiconductors
All fundamentals
P/E 130.2 · FCF yield 1.0% · ROE 10%
Valuation
- P/E
- 130.2×Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 99.7×
- FCF yield
- 1.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 20.28×
- Price / book
- 12.46×
- Market cap
- $837Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $828B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $41.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +39.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +13.6%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $3.90
- EPS growth, last FY
- +165.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $6.4B
- Net income growth
- +127%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 53.2%
- Operating margin
- 15.7%
- Net margin
- 15.6%
- FCF margin
- 20.3%
- Return on equity
- 10%
- Return on invested capital
- 10%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $13.1B
- Total debt
- $3.2B
- Net cash
- $9.9B
- Debt / equity
- 0.05×
- Interest coverage
- 44.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $8.4B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +108%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $310M0.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +1.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $1.9B
Trailing 12 months to Jun 27, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 27, 2026. From Advanced Micro Devices’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $145.14 · MV $547.91 · FCF value $114.64
Assumes 13.6% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 13.6% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $5.07 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 27, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026. Net cash $9.9B, not added.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 40 · 5 days −2.3%
The business
FCF $8.4B · Sales +50%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$8.4B
- Free-cash-flow yield0.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin20%
- Gross margin53%
- Operating margin16%
- Return on invested capital7%
- Return on equity10%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+50%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.1×
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3, after the close
- Consensus EPS$1.68
- Year-ago EPS$0.97
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
AMD is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.