QualityDipStocks / Technology · Semiconductors
Micron Technology MU
On dip watch: 27% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well below our fair value estimate, 8% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $1,592+80%
- Market Value
- $965.78price −8%
- Off 52-wk high
- −27%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 3.38
5 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $884.74
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$201.37−77.2%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$884.74you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 30$965.78+9.2%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$1,214+37.2%
- Fair value est.base case$1,592+79.9%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MU’s free cash flow would need to grow about 4% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MU moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 6.4× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 3.38
- Volatility
- 82% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.53
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.70
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 256% to $133B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 80.7% in FY2026 from 22.4% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 74.6% in FY2026 from 5.2% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 87%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ValuationTrades 8.4% below its Market Value of $965.78, the average price paid since the Sep 30 filing.
Top bearish points 3 of 5
Cash returnsDividend yield of 0.1%, below the 0.9% median for the 69 Technology companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count up 1.8% over 12 months, above the −0.4% median for the 147 Technology companies we cover.
RiskSwings hard: beta 3.38 vs the S&P 500 and 82% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Micron Technology in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Semiconductors
All fundamentals
P/E 11.9 · FCF yield 5.8% · ROE 88%
Valuation
- P/E
- 11.9×Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 17.2×
- FCF yield
- 5.8%
- EV / EBITDA
- 8.9×
- Price / sales
- 7.59×
- Price / book
- 7.31×
- Market cap
- $1.01Tprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $971B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $133B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +256.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +104.6%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $74.33
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/an/m: EPS a year ago near zero
- Net income, 12 months
- $85.0B
- Net income growth
- n/an/m: earnings a year ago near zero
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 80.7%
- Operating margin
- 74.6%
- Net margin
- 63.8%
- FCF margin
- 44.3%
- Return on equity
- 88%
- Return on invested capital
- 87%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $43.4B
- Total debt
- $2.8B
- Net cash
- $40.6B
- Debt / equity
- 0.02×
- Interest coverage
- 937.2×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $59.0B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/an/m: free cash flow a year ago near zero
- Dividend yield
- 0.06%$610M paid
- Payout ratio
- 1%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $650M0.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +1.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $1.3B
Trailing 12 months to Sep 3, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 3, 2026. From Micron Technology’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $1,592 · MV $965.78 · FCF value $1,234
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 104.6% a year FY23–FY26; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $51.59 a share (fiscal year to Sep 3, 2026), from the 10-K filed Oct 9, 2026. Net cash $40.6B, not added.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 42 · 5 days +0.8%
The business
FCF $59.0B · Sales +379%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$59.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin44%
- Gross margin81%
- Operating margin75%
- Return on invested capital56%
- Return on equity100%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+379%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.3×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
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