Stocks / Technology · Semiconductors

TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor TSM

Technology · Semiconductors

$406.13−5.95% dayFri Oct 30 close

On dip watch: 16% below its 52-week high.

A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.

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Fair value est.: $183.18−55%
Market Value: —
Off 52-wk high: −16%
Risk vs market: Highbeta 2.16

5 bullish · 5 bearish See why

Fair value est.Drag across the chart to see any day

Key levels

Every level vs today’s $406.13

Fair value est.base case$183.18−54.9%
52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$275.06−32.3%
PriceFri Oct 30 close$406.13you are here
52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$485.80+19.6%

Fair value estimate

How the range is computed

Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.

$183.18−55% vs price

Price $406.13

Bear$140.59

Base$183.18

Bull$245.41

Price is above even the bull case.

What the price implies To be worth today’s price, TSM’s free cash flow would need to grow about 30% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.

Risk vs market

How risk vs market is measured

One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much TSM moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.

High

Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.1× the S&P 500’s.

Beta vs S&P 500: 2.16
Volatility: 40% vs 13% SPY
Correlation SPY: 0.70
Correlation QQQ: 0.78

Bull vs bear

Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.

Top bullish points 5 of 5

GrowthSales grew 32% to $117B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 50.8% in FY2025 from 42.6% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 35% over the last 12 months, up 7 points in two years.
GrowthSales compounded 19% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.

Top bearish points 5 of 5

ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $183.18, 55% below the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield is just 1.5% (price / FCF 68×), so the price leans on future growth.
ValuationP/E of 40.4×, above the 33.9× median for the 138 Technology companies we cover.
RiskSwings hard: beta 2.16 vs the S&P 500 and 40% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
VoicesCathie Wood (Oct 28): “ARK sold 56,780 shares (Oct 26–Oct 28) across ARKQ,ARKX, per ARK's daily trade disclosures.” ARK daily trades (arkfunds.io)

Who’s talking about it

Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Taiwan Semiconductor in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.

No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.

Compare with peers

Closest in size in Semiconductors

CompanyPrice1 yearvs fair valueP/EMkt cap

AVGOBroadcom$326.08−5.5%−13%−24%41.6×$1.65T SKHYSK hynix$149.21−7.9%—n/an/a$1.18T MUMicron Technology$884.74−5.3%+295%+80%11.9×$1.06T NVDANvidia$204.64−4.2%+1%−21%25.8×$5.15T AMDAdvanced Micro Devices$504.80−10.9%+98%−71%130.2×$925B INTCIntel$65.76−28.6%+64%−83%n/a$487B

All fundamentals

P/E 40.4 · FCF yield 1.5% · ROE 35%

Valuation

P/E: 40.4×Technology median 33.9×
Price / FCF: 68.4×
FCF yield: 1.5%
EV / EBITDA: n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
Price / sales: 18.00×
Price / book: 12.81×
Market cap: $2.11Tprice × diluted shares
Enterprise value: n/anot reported in its SEC filings

Growth

Revenue, 12 months: $117B
Sales growth, 12 months: +31.6%vs the 12 months before
Sales growth, 3 yrs: +18.9%/yrfrom FY2022
Diluted EPS, 12 months: $65.47
EPS growth, last FY: +46.6%
Net income, 12 months: $52.1B
Net income growth: +47%12 months vs before

Profitability

Gross margin: 59.9%
Operating margin: 50.8%
Net margin: 44.6%
FCF margin: 26.3%
Return on equity: 35%
Return on invested capital: n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged

Balance sheet

Cash & short-term inv.: $85.0B
Total debt: n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Net cash: n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
Debt / equity: n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
Interest coverage: 156.5×operating income / interest

Cash flow & returns

Free cash flow, 12 months: $30.8B
FCF growth, 12 months: +15%
Dividend yield: 0.68%$14.3B paid
Payout ratio: 27%
Buybacks, 12 months: $0
Share count, 1 year: n/ano quarterly diluted share count
Stock-based comp: n/anot reported in its SEC filings

Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Taiwan Semiconductor’s SEC filings, reported in TWD and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.

Valuation details

DCF $183.18 · FCF value $6,692

How

Market ValueNo thesis-changing filing in the window we track

—

Fair value estimateDCF: ten years of free cash flow per share, discounted

$183.1855% downside

Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 32.7% a year FY23–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $5.94 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, converted from TWD at 0.03071, 5 shares per ADR), from the 20-F filed Apr 16, 2026. Capex: purchases of property, plant and equipment (from the filing).

FCF valuePrice at a 4% yield on trailing free cash flow ($1,476.2B)

$6,692price −94%

Setup & signals

No setup armed

All setups

No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.

Momentum & 52-week range

RSI 38 · 5 days −3.0%

$406.13now

52-wk low $275.06high $485.80

Off 52-wk high−16.4%

5 days−3.0%

vs 50-day avg−6.6%

vs 200-day avg+1.5%

RSI (14)38

Market cap$2.24T

The business

FCF $1,476.2B · Sales +51%

Free cash flow, 12 months$1,476.2B
Free-cash-flow yield65.9%
Free-cash-flow margin30%
Gross margin66%
Operating margin58%
Return on invested capital28%
Return on equity43%
Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+51%
Net debt / EBITDA−0.7×

Investor buzz

3 from investors

Their view, not ours, and not advice. All buzz

Cathie Wood (ARK Invest)Oct 28 · Fund trade

bearish

ARK sold 56,780 shares (Oct 26–Oct 28) across ARKQ,ARKX, per ARK's daily trade disclosures.

TSM ARK daily trades (arkfunds.io)

Jim CramerOct 1 · TV

bullish

“I like Taiwan Semi. Now look, obviously I'm an Nvidia devotee, but Taiwan Semi is such a great company.”

TSM CNBC Mad Money (lightning round)

Stanley DruckenmillerAug 14 · 13F filing

bullish

13F: increased stake 19%, Q2 2026 (495,280 → 589,680 shares, now 6.5% of the 13F portfolio). Quarterly filing, positions as of 2026-06-30.

TSM SEC 13F (Duquesne Family Office)

Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.

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