QualityDipAVGOBroadcom
QD-0001
Rules v1
Rules v1
Closed 7.0% below what the market has paid since earnings on Sep 2 (Market Value $350.52, 41 trading days).
Entry · Oct 30 close$326.08
SPY entry$755.72
Return—
vs SPY—
Tracking starts with the Nov 2 close.
Stocks / Technology · Semiconductors
AVGO
Broadcom AVGO
$326.08−5.48% dayFri Oct 30 close
Deep dip, logged on our public Ledger on the Oct 30 close; 32% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading above our fair value estimate, 7% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $248.75−24%
- Market Value
- $350.52price −7%
- Off 52-wk high
- −32%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.19
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Fair value est.Market ValueDrag across the chart to see any day
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $326.08
- Fair value est.base case$248.75−23.7%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$293.41−10.0%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$326.08you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 2$350.52+7.5%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$481.57+47.7%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
$248.75−24% vs price
Price $326.08
Bear$190.91
Base$248.75
Bull$333.25
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, AVGO’s free cash flow would need to grow about 20% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much AVGO moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
High
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.6× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.19
- Volatility
- 46% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.61
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.69
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 49% to $89.1B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 288% to $4.77 in FY2025.
GrowthSales compounded 24% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 32% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
ValuationTrades 7.0% below its Market Value of $350.52, the average price paid since the Sep 2 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $248.75, 24% below the price.
Balance sheetDebt rose 66% to $65.1B from FY2023 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 39.9% in FY2025 from 45.2% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
RiskSwings hard: beta 2.19 vs the S&P 500 and 46% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
VoicesStanley Druckenmiller (Aug 14): “13F: sold entire stake, Q2 2026 (had 195,955 shares). Quarterly filing, positions as of 2026-06-30.” SEC 13F (Duquesne Family Office)
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Broadcom in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Semiconductors
CompanyPrice1 yearvs fair valueP/EMkt cap
TSMTaiwan Semiconductor$406.13−5.9%+34%−55%40.4×$2.24TSKHYSK hynix$149.21−7.9%—n/an/a$1.18TMUMicron Technology$884.74−5.3%+295%+80%11.9×$1.06TAMDAdvanced Micro Devices$504.80−10.9%+98%−71%130.2×$925BNVDANvidia$204.64−4.2%+1%−21%25.8×$5.15TINTCIntel$65.76−28.6%+64%−83%n/a$487BAll fundamentals
P/E 41.6 · FCF yield 2.5% · Sales +49%
Valuation
- P/E
- 41.6×Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 40.4×
- FCF yield
- 2.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 17.88×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $1.59Tprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $89.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +48.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +24.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $7.84
- EPS growth, last FY
- +287.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $38.3B
- Net income growth
- +102%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 68.8%
- Operating margin
- 48.0%
- Net margin
- 42.9%
- FCF margin
- 44.2%
- Return on equity
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 13.7×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $39.4B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +58%
- Dividend yield
- 0.76%$12.1B paid
- Payout ratio
- 32%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $8.4B0.5% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $8.5B
Trailing 12 months to Aug 2, 2026. From Broadcom’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $248.75 · MV $350.52 · FCF value $201.57
Market ValueAverage paid since the Sep 2 filing, 41 trading days
$350.52price −7%
Fair value estimateDCF: ten years of free cash flow per share, discounted
$248.7524% downside
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 24.4% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $8.06 a share, trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026 (company filings via Yahoo Finance, checked against SEC).
FCF valuePrice at a 4% free-cash-flow yield
$201.57price +62%
How we got these
- Market Value: volume-weighted average close from Sep 3 (first full trading day after the filing) to Oct 30, 41 trading days. Simple average $350.08. Event: SEC 8-K Item 2.02 (earnings), filed Sep 2, 4:26 PM ET. Read the filing.
- Free cash flow, 12 months to Jul 31: $40.7B operating cash flow − $1.2B capex = $39.4B, or $8.06 a share on 4.89B diluted shares.
- DCF: free cash flow per share grows 15% a year for five years, from its FY2022–FY2025 revenue growth of 24% a year (capped at 15%), fading to 3% by year ten; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth.
- FCF value: free cash flow per share ÷ 4%, the price at which the stock yields 4% in free cash flow.
Setup & signals
Signal fired
Closed 7.0% under Market ValueFired on the Oct 30 close
$326.08
LedgerTracked against SPY
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 41 · 5 days +1.4%
$326.08nowMV
52-wk low $293.41high $481.57
Off 52-wk high−32.3%
5 days+1.4%
vs 50-day avg−7.6%
vs 200-day avg−11.3%
RSI (14)41
Market cap$1.65T
The business
FCF $39.4B · Sales +86%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$39.4B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin44%
- Gross margin69%
- Operating margin48%
- Return on invested capital22%
- Return on equity45%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+86%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.7×
Investor buzz
3 from investors
Their view, not ours, and not advice. All buzz
JC
Jim CramerOct 28 · TV
neutral“Broadcom has been one of the greatest performers of all time, but so is Coca-Cola. I wouldn't shoot Broadcom, and I would buy Coca-Cola.”
CW
Cathie Wood (ARK Invest)Sep 29 · Fund trade
bullishARK bought 76,263 shares (Sep 29) across ARKK,ARKW, per ARK's daily trade disclosures.
SD
Stanley DruckenmillerAug 14 · 13F filing
bearish13F: sold entire stake, Q2 2026 (had 195,955 shares). Quarterly filing, positions as of 2026-06-30.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
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