QualityDipStocks / Energy · Oil & Gas Production
Antero Resources AR
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 7% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $65.59+56%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −7%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.38
5 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $42.08
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$30.03−28.6%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$42.08you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$45.15+7.3%
- Fair value est.base case$65.59+55.9%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, AR’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 5% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much AR moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 3.0× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.38
- Volatility
- 38% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.13
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.14
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 9.8% (price / FCF 10.2×): $1.3B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $65.59, 56% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
ValuationP/E of 9.4× vs a 16.2× median for the 43 Energy companies we cover.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 16.7% in FY2025 from 8.5% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales grew 29% to $6.5B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 3 of 5
GrowthSales shrank 10% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 0.3×, above the 0.3× median for the 36 Energy companies we cover.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Antero Resources in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Oil & Gas Production
All fundamentals
P/E 9.4 · FCF yield 9.8% · ROE 17%
Valuation
- P/E
- 9.4×Energy median 16.2×
- Price / FCF
- 10.2×
- FCF yield
- 9.8%
- EV / EBITDA
- 6.0×
- Price / sales
- 2.00×
- Price / book
- 1.50×
- Market cap
- $13.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $15.8B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $6.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +28.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −9.6%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.43
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/an/m: EPS a year ago near zero
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.4B
- Net income growth
- +133%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 27.6%
- Net margin
- 21.2%
- FCF margin
- 19.7%
- Return on equity
- 17%
- Return on invested capital
- 12%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $0
- Total debt
- $2.8B
- Net cash
- −$2.8B
- Debt / equity
- 0.32×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.3B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +40%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $94M0.7% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $52M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Antero Resources’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $65.59 · FCF value $21.54
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -9.6% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $4.14 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 28, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 70 · 5 days +4.8%
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales +17%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin4%
- Gross margin68%
- Operating margin30%
- Return on invested capital10%
- Return on equity17%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+17%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.8×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
AR is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.