QualityDipStocks / Energy · Oil & Gas Production
APA APA
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s at its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate, 7% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $112.06+112%
- Market Value
- $49.34price +7%
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.97
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $52.82
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$21.66−59.0%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 7$49.34−6.6%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$52.82at the price
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$52.82you are here
- Fair value est.base case$112.06+112.2%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 6.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 4.0%; bull = 8.5% and 8.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, APA’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 7% a year for five years; our estimate uses 6%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much APA moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 3.5× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.97
- Volatility
- 44% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.28
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.29
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 11.3% (price / FCF 8.8×): $2.1B of free cash in the last 12 months.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 76% to $3.99 in FY2025.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $112.06, 112% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 3.7×: modest for what the business earns before interest, tax and depreciation.
ValuationP/E of 11.1× vs a 16.2× median for the 43 Energy companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 84 points in two fiscal years, to 24% in FY2025.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 0.5×, above the 0.3× median for the 36 Energy companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 2.7×, above the 2.5× median for the 42 Energy companies we cover.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
ValuationTrades 7.1% above its Market Value of $49.34, the average price paid since the Oct 7 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on APA in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Oil & Gas Production
All fundamentals
P/E 11.1 · FCF yield 11.3% · ROE 26%
Valuation
- P/E
- 11.1×Energy median 16.2×
- Price / FCF
- 8.8×
- FCF yield
- 11.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- 3.7×
- Price / sales
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Price / book
- 2.66×
- Market cap
- $18.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $22.0B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Sales growth, 12 months
- n/ano year-ago 12-month revenue
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.74
- EPS growth, last FY
- +75.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.7B
- Net income growth
- +55%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 26%
- Return on invested capital
- 29%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $444M
- Total debt
- $3.7B
- Net cash
- −$3.3B
- Debt / equity
- 0.53×
- Interest coverage
- 13.4×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $2.1B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +33%
- Dividend yield
- 1.90%$356M paid
- Payout ratio
- 21%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.9%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From APA’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $112.06 · MV $49.34 · FCF value $157.73
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 6.0% growth for 5 years (default; under two years of revenue in SEC data), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $5.97 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 74 · 5 days +1.8%
The business
FCF $2.1B · Sales +9%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$2.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield11.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin25%
- Gross margin78%
- Operating margin56%
- Return on invested capital36%
- Return on equity27%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+9%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.6×
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$1.44
- Year-ago EPS$0.93
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
APA is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.