QualityDipStocks / Energy · Oil & Gas Production
Chord Energy CHRD
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 1% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $153.76price +2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −1%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.77
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $156.99
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$84.99−45.9%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 19$153.76−2.1%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$156.99you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$158.13+0.7%
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for CHRD: the model gives 217% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CHRD’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 10% a year for five years; our estimate uses 10%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CHRD moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 3.1× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.77
- Volatility
- 39% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.25
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.25
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 13.4% (price / FCF 7.5×): $1.2B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 3.6×: modest for what the business earns before interest, tax and depreciation.
ValuationP/E of 10.5× vs a 16.2× median for the 43 Energy companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 19% to $6.3B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Cash returnsDividend yield of 3.3% ($297M paid over 12 months, 35% of earnings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 4.0% in FY2025 from 32.7% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 95% to $0.74 in FY2025.
Balance sheetDebt rose 274% to $1.5B from FY2023 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 20 points in two fiscal years, to 1% in FY2025.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Chord Energy in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Oil & Gas Production
All fundamentals
P/E 10.5 · FCF yield 13.4% · ROE 10%
Valuation
- P/E
- 10.5×Energy median 16.2×
- Price / FCF
- 7.5×
- FCF yield
- 13.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- 3.6×
- Price / sales
- 1.41×
- Price / book
- 1.06×
- Market cap
- $8.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $9.8B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $6.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +19.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +10.2%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $14.81
- EPS growth, last FY
- −95.4%
- Net income, 12 months
- $848M
- Net income growth
- +219%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 71.3%
- Operating margin
- 19.0%
- Net margin
- 13.4%
- FCF margin
- 18.8%
- Return on equity
- 10%
- Return on invested capital
- 10%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $612M
- Total debt
- $1.5B
- Net cash
- −$870M
- Debt / equity
- 0.18×
- Interest coverage
- 12.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.2B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +24%
- Dividend yield
- 3.34%$297M paid
- Payout ratio
- 35%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $309M3.5% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −2.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $30M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Chord Energy’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
MV $153.76 · FCF value $448.54
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 64 · 5 days −0.7%
The business
FCF $1.0B · Sales +84%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield11.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin16%
- Gross margin48%
- Operating margin35%
- Return on invested capital18%
- Return on equity10%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+84%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.3×
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$5.89
- Year-ago EPS$2.35
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
CHRD is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.