QualityDipStocks / Energy · Oil & Gas Production
Expand Energy EXE
In a deep dip: 26% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $177.25+96%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −26%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.12
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $90.55
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$84.09−7.1%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$90.55you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$122.89+35.7%
- Fair value est.base case$177.25+95.7%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, EXE’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 9% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much EXE moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.4× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.12
- Volatility
- 30% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.05
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.08
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 12.4% (price / FCF 8.1×): $2.6B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $177.25, 96% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
ValuationP/E of 7.6× vs a 16.2× median for the 43 Energy companies we cover.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 76% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 26% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 20.4% in FY2025 from 36.0% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetDebt rose 147% to $5.0B from FY2023 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 13 points in two fiscal years, to 10% in FY2025.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Expand Energy in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Oil & Gas Production
All fundamentals
P/E 7.6 · FCF yield 12.4% · ROE 15%
Valuation
- P/E
- 7.6×Energy median 16.2×
- Price / FCF
- 8.1×
- FCF yield
- 12.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- 3.9×
- Price / sales
- 1.51×
- Price / book
- 1.08×
- Market cap
- $21.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $25.5B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $13.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +28.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +1.1%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $11.59
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.8B
- Net income growth
- +218%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 25.7%
- Net margin
- 19.8%
- FCF margin
- 18.6%
- Return on equity
- 15%
- Return on invested capital
- 12%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $118M
- Total debt
- $4.6B
- Net cash
- −$4.5B
- Debt / equity
- 0.24×
- Interest coverage
- 17.4×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $2.6B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +76%
- Dividend yield
- 2.61%$548M paid
- Payout ratio
- 20%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $900M4.3% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −3.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $45M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Expand Energy’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $177.25 · FCF value $266.45
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 1.1% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $11.19 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 27, 2026. Net debt $4.5B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 47 · 5 days −2.9%
The business
FCF $2.5B · Sales +10%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$2.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield11.8%
- Free-cash-flow margin18%
- Gross margin55%
- Operating margin28%
- Return on invested capital13%
- Return on equity14%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+10%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.7×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when EXE fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on EXE or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.