QualityDipStocks / Utilities · Natural Gas Distribution
Archrock AROC
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 28% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate, 3% under its Market Value.
Worth knowing
- Deepest drop from a 52-week high in over 3 years
- Down 28% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 12%
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $51.44+70%
- Market Value
- $31.41price −3%
- Off 52-wk high
- −28%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.55
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Mixed signals
The price is 28% below its 52-week high (Jun 26), but the business held up: free cash flow +19.1%, net cash (cash minus debt) +0.5% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less.
Some numbers held up (free cash flow +19.1%, net cash (cash minus debt) +0.5% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less), others slipped (revenue growth rate −11.1 pts). The price is 28% below its 52-week high.
The price is 28% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue growth rate −11.1 pts.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$1.5B → $1.5B (−0.8%)about the same
- Revenue growth rate+22.7% → +11.5% a year (−11.1 pts)changed
- Earnings per share, 12 months$1.84 → $1.86 (+0.9%)about the same
- Free cash flow, 12 months$245M → $291M (+19.1%)held up
- Shares outstanding+0.1% (more shares, each owns less)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)+0.5% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Utilities)stock −28%, sector median −2% since Jun 26changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −28%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +1% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 29.9× at the high → 18.2× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Mar 31, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($41.95, Jun 26) the price assumed about 14%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($23.04, Nov 20) about 53%; today about 5%. The last 3 years delivered 21%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 21%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $41.95Jun 26 | $23.04Nov 20 | $30.34 |
| Implied growth | +14% | +53% | +5% |
| P/E | 22.8× | 15.4× | 16.3× |
| P/FCF | 29.9× | 208.7× | 18.2× |
| EV/Sales | 6.4× | 4.6× | 5.1× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, AROC’s free cash flow would need to grow about 5% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much AROC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.5× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.55
- Volatility
- 32% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.22
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.25
How it ranks
Where AROC stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 4 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate70% · price below our base caseTop 16%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield5.5% · free cash flow vs market capTop 35%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield3.7% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 38%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+12% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 43%of 1,814
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $51.44 · MV $31.41 · FCF value $34.35
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 20.8% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.67 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026. Net debt $2.3B, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $51.44, 70% above the price.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 74% to $1.83 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 48.6% in FY2025 from 37.9% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 21% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ValuationTrades 3.4% below its Market Value of $31.41, the average price paid since the Aug 5 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetDebt rose 52% to $2.4B from FY2023 to FY2025.
Balance sheetNet debt of $2.3B, 44% of the market cap (Jun 30, 2026).
GrowthSales growth slowed to 12% over the last 12 months, from 21% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
ValuationPrice / book of 3.4×, above the 2.1× median for the 78 Utilities companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
All fundamentals
P/E 16.3 · FCF yield 5.5% · ROE 22%
Valuation
- P/E
- 16.3×Utilities median 21.2×
- Price / FCF
- 18.2×
- FCF yield
- 5.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.52×
- Price / book
- 3.42×
- Market cap
- $5.3Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $7.6B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +11.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +20.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.86
- EPS growth, last FY
- +74.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $325M
- Net income growth
- +42%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 48.9%
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 21.6%
- FCF margin
- 19.4%
- Return on equity
- 22%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $2M
- Total debt
- $2.3B
- Net cash
- −$2.3B
- Debt / equity
- 1.51×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $291M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/an/m: free cash flow a year ago near zero
- Dividend yield
- 2.87%$152M paid
- Payout ratio
- 47%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $46M0.9% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.3%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $24M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Archrock’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales −3%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin16%
- Gross margin67%
- Operating margin36%
- Return on invested capital11%
- Return on equity22%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−3%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.8×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $30.34
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$23.04−24.1%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$30.34you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$31.41+3.5%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$41.95+38.3%
- Fair value est.base case$51.44+69.5%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 48 · 5 days +1.2%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
AROC is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Archrock in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Natural Gas Distribution
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.