QualityDipStocks / Utilities · Natural Gas Distribution
Kodiak Gas Services KGS
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 42% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 20% under its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: its free cash flow is near zero.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $55.41price −20%
- Off 52-wk high
- −42%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.86
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 42% below its 52-week high (Jun 26), but the business held up: revenue +5.2%, revenue growth rate +4.2 pts, earnings per share +7.6%.
Some numbers held up (revenue +5.2%, revenue growth rate +4.2 pts, earnings per share +7.6%), others slipped (free cash flow −97.5%, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less). The price is 42% below its 52-week high.
The price is 42% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: free cash flow −97.5%, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$1.3B → $1.4B (+5.2%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+4.0% → +8.2% a year (+4.2 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$0.75 → $0.81 (+7.6%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$200M → $5M (−97.5%)changed
- Operating margin27.0% → 27.4% (+0.4 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding+10.6% (more shares, each owns less)changed
- Stock vs its sector (Utilities)stock −42%, sector median −2% since Jun 26changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −42%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +5% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 33.3× at the high → 859.6× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Mar 31, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($76.27, Jun 26) the price assumed about 16%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($32.95, Nov 17) about 2%. The last 3 years delivered 23%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 23%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $76.27Jun 26 | $32.95Nov 17 | $44.46 |
| Implied growth | +16% | +2% | over 80% |
| P/E | 101.4× | 39.3× | 54.9× |
| P/FCF | 33.3× | 15.3× | 859.6× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
No estimate for KGS: free cash flow is barely positive ($0.05 a share); a DCF says little. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much KGS moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, and its own price swings are 3.3× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.86
- Volatility
- 42% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.26
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.32
How it ranks
Where KGS stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 4 measures
- Free cash flow yield0.1% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 17%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield6% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 20%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+8.2% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 44%of 1,814
- Operating margin27% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 15%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $55.41 · FCF value $4.94
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 59% to $0.89 in FY2025.
GrowthSales compounded 23% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 4.1% ($176M paid over 12 months).
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 27% over the last 12 months.
ValuationTrades 19.8% below its Market Value of $55.41, the average price paid since the Aug 6 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 96% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ValuationP/E of 54.9× vs a 21.2× median for the 87 Utilities companies we cover.
GrowthSales growth slowed to 8% over the last 12 months, from 23% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield is just 0.1%.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 3.6× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
P/E 54.9 · FCF yield 0.1% · Sales +8%
Valuation
- P/E
- 54.9×Utilities median 21.2×
- Price / FCF
- n/an/m: free cash flow near zero
- FCF yield
- 0.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.09×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $4.3Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.4B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +8.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +22.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.88
- EPS growth, last FY
- +58.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $78M
- Net income growth
- −4%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 27.4%
- Net margin
- 5.6%
- FCF margin
- 0.4%
- Return on equity
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $5M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −96%
- Dividend yield
- 4.08%$176M paid
- Payout ratio
- 224%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $84M2.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +7.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $26M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026. From Kodiak Gas Services’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.0B · Sales +21%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield0.1%
- Free-cash-flow margin1%
- Gross margin64%
- Operating margin34%
- Return on invested capital8%
- Return on equity5%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+21%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.6×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $44.46
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$32.95−25.9%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$44.46you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 6$55.41+24.6%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$76.27+71.5%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 34 · 5 days −2.2%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 9
- DateMon Nov 9, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.64
- Year-ago EPS$0.36
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
KGS is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Kodiak Gas Services in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Natural Gas Distribution
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.