QualityDipStocks / Technology · Electronic Components
Arrow Electronics ARW
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 14% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading below our fair value estimate, 7% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $252.19+21%
- Market Value
- $223.18price −7%
- Off 52-wk high
- −14%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.53
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $208.34
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$101.87−51.1%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$208.34you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 4$223.18+7.1%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$242.01+16.2%
- Fair value est.base case$252.19+21.0%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ARW’s free cash flow would need to stay flat for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ARW moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.0× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.53
- Volatility
- 38% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.52
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.53
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $252.19, 21% above the price.
ValuationP/E of 13.3× vs a 33.9× median for the 138 Technology companies we cover.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 76% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 50% to $10.93 in FY2025.
ValuationTrades 6.6% below its Market Value of $223.18, the average price paid since the Sep 4 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales shrank 6% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 7 points in two fiscal years, to 9% in FY2025.
ProfitabilityGross margin of 11%, below the 59% median for the 151 Technology companies we cover.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 3.4%, below the 16% median for the 153 Technology companies we cover.
RiskReports earnings Nov 5 (consensus EPS $4.98): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Arrow Electronics in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Electronic Components
All fundamentals
P/E 13.3 · FCF yield 7.6% · ROE 12%
Valuation
- P/E
- 13.3×Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 13.1×
- FCF yield
- 7.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- 9.4×
- Price / sales
- 0.30×
- Price / book
- 1.54×
- Market cap
- $10.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $12.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $35.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +26.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −6.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $15.65
- EPS growth, last FY
- +49.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $812M
- Net income growth
- +74%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 11.3%
- Operating margin
- 3.4%
- Net margin
- 2.3%
- FCF margin
- 2.3%
- Return on equity
- 12%
- Return on invested capital
- 11%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $245M
- Total debt
- $2.2B
- Net cash
- −$1.9B
- Debt / equity
- 0.31×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $825M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +76%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $127M1.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.9%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $20M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 4, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 4, 2026. From Arrow Electronics’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $252.19 · MV $223.18 · FCF value $339.48
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -6.0% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $15.92 a share (trailing 12 months to Jul 4, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026. Net debt $1.8B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 40 · 5 days −0.7%
The business
FCF $0.7B · Sales +32%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.7B
- Free-cash-flow yield6.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin2%
- Gross margin11%
- Operating margin4%
- Return on invested capital13%
- Return on equity12%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+32%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.3×
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, before the open
- Consensus EPS$4.98
- Year-ago EPS$2.41
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
ARW is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.