QualityDipStocks / Technology · Electronic Components
Western Digital WDC
In a deep dip: 51% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading near our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $344.59−6%
- Market Value
- $368.27price −1%
- Off 52-wk high
- −51%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 3.21
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $366.11
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$138.13−62.3%
- Fair value est.base case$344.59−5.9%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$366.11you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 22$368.27+0.6%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$746.23+103.8%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, WDC’s free cash flow would need to grow about 16% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much WDC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 6.3× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 3.21
- Volatility
- 81% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.51
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.62
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 374% to $24.28 in FY2026.
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 48.9% in FY2026 from 28.1% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 34.5% in FY2026 from −6.4% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 61%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 51% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
Top bearish points 4 of 5
Cash returnsDividend yield of 0.1%, below the 0.9% median for the 69 Technology companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count up 2.1% over 12 months, above the −0.4% median for the 147 Technology companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 15.0×, above the 7.1× median for the 149 Technology companies we cover.
RiskSwings hard: beta 3.21 vs the S&P 500 and 81% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Western Digital in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Electronic Components
All fundamentals
P/E 14.2 · FCF yield 3.1% · ROE 130%
Valuation
- P/E
- 14.2×Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 32.8×
- FCF yield
- 3.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- 23.0×
- Price / sales
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Price / book
- 15.04×
- Market cap
- $141Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $140B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- n/athe SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Sales growth, 12 months
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $25.84
- EPS growth, last FY
- +374.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $9.9B
- Net income growth
- +295%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 52.6%
- Operating margin
- 39.4%
- Net margin
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- FCF margin
- 29.6%
- Return on equity
- 130%
- Return on invested capital
- 61%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.3B
- Total debt
- $789M
- Net cash
- $525M
- Debt / equity
- 0.08×
- Interest coverage
- 48.8×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $4.3B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +121%
- Dividend yield
- 0.14%$196M paid
- Payout ratio
- 2%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $3.0B2.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +2.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $230M
Trailing 12 months to Oct 2, 2026; balance sheet at Oct 2, 2026. From Western Digital’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $344.59 · MV $368.27 · FCF value $265.31
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 27.4% a year FY23–FY26; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $11.17 a share (trailing 12 months to Oct 2, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 23, 2026. Net cash $525M, not added.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 43 · 5 days +6.5%
The business
FCF $4.3B · Sales +56%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$4.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin30%
- Gross margin53%
- Operating margin41%
- Return on invested capital46%
- Return on equity120%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+56%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.1×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when WDC fires a reversal signal
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