QualityDipStocks / Technology · Electronic Components
NetApp NTAP
On dip watch: 17% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate, 5% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $130.73−34%
- Market Value
- $208.68price −5%
- Off 52-wk high
- −17%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.44
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $199.18
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$94.11−52.8%
- Fair value est.base case$130.73−34.4%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$199.18you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 2$208.68+4.8%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$239.18+20.1%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, NTAP’s free cash flow would need to grow about 11% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much NTAP moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.6× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.44
- Volatility
- 46% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.40
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.41
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 26.8% in FY2026 from 21.5% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales grew 16% to $6.7B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Balance sheetNet cash of $1.1B: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Jul 31, 2026).
ValuationTrades 4.6% below its Market Value of $208.68, the average price paid since the Sep 2 filing.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $130.73, 34% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 28.1× is 54% above its own average of 18.2× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 1.7×, above the 0.4× median for the 88 Technology companies we cover.
GrowthSales fell 0.7% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 11% median for the 162 Technology companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 26.6×, above the 7.1× median for the 149 Technology companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on NetApp in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Electronic Components
All fundamentals
P/E 28.1 · FCF yield 4.1% · ROE 115%
Valuation
- P/E
- 28.1×3-yr-end avg 18.2× · Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 24.1×
- FCF yield
- 4.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- 19.3×
- Price / sales
- 5.98×
- Price / book
- 26.65×
- Market cap
- $39.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $38.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $6.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +15.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −0.7%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $7.08
- EPS growth, last FY
- +12.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.4B
- Net income growth
- +21%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 78.4%
- Operating margin
- 27.8%
- Net margin
- 21.3%
- FCF margin
- 24.8%
- Return on equity
- 115%
- Return on invested capital
- n/an/m: very small invested capital
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $3.6B
- Total debt
- $2.5B
- Net cash
- $1.1B
- Debt / equity
- 1.66×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.6B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −0%
- Dividend yield
- 1.03%$411M paid
- Payout ratio
- 29%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $850M2.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $397M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 31, 2026. From NetApp’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $130.73 · MV $208.68 · FCF value $191.52
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 2.9% a year FY23–FY26; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $8.25 a share (trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Sep 2, 2026. Net cash $1.1B, not added.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 41 · 5 days −7.6%
The business
FCF $1.6B · Sales +30%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.6B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.8%
- Free-cash-flow margin22%
- Gross margin71%
- Operating margin26%
- Return on invested capital38%
- Return on equity119%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+30%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.5×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when NTAP fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on NTAP or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.