QualityDipStocks / Technology · Electronic Components
TE Connectivity TEL
Not in a dip by our rules: 14% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $179.28−16%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −14%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.64
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $213.03
- Fair value est.base case$179.28−15.8%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$195.84−8.1%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$213.03you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$249.00+16.9%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, TEL’s free cash flow would need to grow about 6% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much TEL moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 2.8× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.64
- Volatility
- 36% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.59
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.53
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 20.7× vs a 33.9× median for the 138 Technology companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 5.3% (price / FCF 18.8×): $3.3B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 18.6% in FY2025 from 14.4% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales grew 17% to $19.3B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $179.28, 16% below the price.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 40% to $6.16 in FY2025.
Balance sheetDebt rose 35% to $5.7B from FY2023 to FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 2.0% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 11% median for the 162 Technology companies we cover.
RiskSwings hard: beta 1.64 vs the S&P 500 and 36% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on TE Connectivity in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Electronic Components
All fundamentals
P/E 20.7 · FCF yield 5.3% · Sales +17%
Valuation
- P/E
- 20.7×3-yr-end avg 23.5× · Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 18.8×
- FCF yield
- 5.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.23×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $62.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $19.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +16.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +2.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $10.21
- EPS growth, last FY
- −40.4%
- Net income, 12 months
- $3.0B
- Net income growth
- +107%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 36.1%
- Operating margin
- 19.7%
- Net margin
- 15.6%
- FCF margin
- 17.2%
- Return on equity
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 31.3×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $3.3B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +15%
- Dividend yield
- 1.36%$852M paid
- Payout ratio
- 28%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.8B2.9% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.7%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $174M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 26, 2026. From TE Connectivity’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $179.28 · FCF value $280.74
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 2.0% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $11.31 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 26, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Jul 24, 2026. Net debt $4.3B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 48 · 5 days +2.4%
The business
FCF $3.4B · Sales +14%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$3.4B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin17%
- Gross margin36%
- Operating margin21%
- Return on invested capital17%
- Return on equity25%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+14%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.9×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when TEL fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on TEL or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.